State-owned Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has projected India's merchandise exports to grow 17.6% year-on-year to $131.2 billion in the July-September period of FY27. According to Exim Bank, this growth is attributed to increasing geographical diversification along with favourable prospects from recent trade agreements with major trading partners, supported by buoyant demand in partner countries. The bank's Export Leading Index (ELI) forecasts indicate sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and favourable exchange-rate movements are driving the country's positive export outlook.
Non-oil exports are projected to rise 20.3% to $113.8 billion during Q2FY27, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated to increase 20.5% to $105.8 billion during the same period. As per Exim Bank, these projections are based on sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and exchange-rate movements, with the bank's in-house model generating quarterly growth forecasts for merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports. The forecasts consider several external and domestic factors that could affect the country's exports.
India's exports demonstrated strong resilience during the first four months of the current fiscal year, with growth of approximately 15% despite facing global uncertainties. According to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, this performance reflects the country's robust export capabilities and market positioning. During the first quarter (April-June), merchandise exports rose 15.9% to $129.32 billion, while imports increased 19.89% to $216.18 billion. The minister expressed confidence that India will achieve its ambitious target of $1 trillion worth of goods and services exports for the fiscal year 2026-27, building on the $863 billion achieved in 2025-26.
Minister Goyal emphasized the significant impact of free trade agreements on India's export opportunities. According to the minister, the nine pacts finalised in the last four years have opened substantial opportunities for the domestic industry. These agreements collectively account for approximately two-thirds of global trade, positioning India strategically within international trade networks and providing enhanced market access for Indian goods and services. The bank's projections highlight how these trade agreements continue to support India's export growth trajectory.
The Department of Commerce will release the trade data for July on Thursday, providing comprehensive insights into India's trade performance for the first seven months of the fiscal year. Based on Exim Bank's projections, the country appears well-positioned for continued export growth in Q2FY27. However, the bank noted that geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity markets present downside risks to the positive export outlook. The minister indicated that the final exports and import numbers for July will be released on August 13, allowing stakeholders to assess the country's progress toward achieving its annual export targets.
