XRP has climbed back above $1.39 during early Asia trading on May 4, 2026, with strong volume confirming real market participation rather than low-liquidity pushes. According to Coin Bureau analysis, a large wave of net long-position buying has taken place in XRP, representing the largest volume in two weeks. The token reached a high of $1.4148 before pulling back slightly into a consolidation range between $1.4040-$1.4060. This represents another attempt to break out of the tight range between $1.35-$1.45 that XRP had been trading in for some time, with the latest move confirming institutional conviction as whale wallets continue to stack net long positions. As per The Market Periodical, whale wallets added approximately 1.15 billion XRP during April, demonstrating continued institutional accumulation.
XRP price has recovered to $1.40 following Ripple's monthly escrow relock operations that removed 700 million XRP from circulation. According to Whale Alert data, this is part of Ripple's standard monthly supply management process, with the relock occurring within 24 hours of unlocking 1 billion XRP. The relock, valued at approximately $974 million at prevailing prices, was confirmed across multiple on-chain batches on the XRP Ledger. The timing of these operations coincided with the conclusion of Ripple's XRP Las Vegas 2026 conference, where XRP was positioned as a future global reserve currency. Cumulative inflows into US spot XRP ETFs have now passed $1.29 billion according to CoinMarketCap data, with the move putting $1.45 resistance as the next test before a wider breakout begins.
XRP is currently trading above both the $1.40 level and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, with a bullish trend line forming on the hourly chart. The token cleared the $1.39 breakout level and is now consolidating above the 100-hourly simple moving average, with an ascending trendline intact. The hourly MACD remains bullish and the RSI sits above 50, both supporting continued upside momentum if price can hold above $1.40. Key resistance levels include $1.420 (first major resistance), $1.435, $1.450, $1.480, and $1.50. Support levels are positioned at $1.3880 (first support), $1.380 (50% Fibonacci retracement), $1.350, and $1.322. A cup and handle pattern on the daily chart points toward $1.70 if XRP clears the $1.45 resistance that has blocked every rally this year, with the 100-day EMA at $1.52 opening the path toward $2.15, representing a 53% gain from current levels. The cup and handle pattern puts the neckline at $1.50, with a breakout above that level targeting $1.70-$1.80.
The timing of the escrow relock coincided with the conclusion of Ripple's XRP Las Vegas 2026 conference, where XRP was positioned as a future global reserve currency. As reported by multiple sources, this conference-driven momentum resulted in a 2-4% price pop that outpaced a largely flat altcoin market. During the Vegas event, Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin simultaneously listed on OKX across 280+ spot pairs, adding bridge-asset utility to the rally thesis. The latest move marks another attempt to break out of the compression range, with volume confirming the push through $1.40 and smart money already calculating the outcome as whale wallets do not stack $1.29 billion in XRP ETF positions without clear direction. The CLARITY Act markup before May 21 and the Fed Chair transition on May 15 are the triggers that could push XRP past $1.45 and confirm the breakout structure.
XRP is expected to consolidate between $1.38-1.45 while waiting for institutional volume to confirm a breakout, with RLUSD adoption on OKX potentially providing the next demand catalyst. The current setup shows higher lows leading into the breakout, pointing to steady buying pressure underneath the $1.40 level. Even bull case targets of $1.55 or $2.00 represent 10-40% upside from a $73 billion market cap asset. Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 target to $2.80, while Bitwise published a base case of $4.94 with a max scenario at $6.53. Changelly projects an average of $2.06 for December 2026, while Cryptopolitan sees a high of $2.48. The MACD and RSI readings on the hourly chart remain in bullish territory, with $1.40 now serving as the key pivot level that determines whether the current breakout structure remains intact or signals a failed attempt. For those seeking higher returns, Pepeto presale offers potential 100x-300x gains with a $9 million raised ahead of its expected Binance listing.
