XRP is trading near $1.08, supported by over $1.5 billion in ETF inflows and steady institutional demand despite ongoing regulatory uncertainty from the SEC. The token faces technical resistance around $1.09-$1.11 but benefits from growing real-world use in cross-border payments. XRP withdrawal transactions on Binance and all centralized exchanges have surged to their highest levels in over five years, coinciding with the token's price retesting a crucial multi-year support range around $1 to $1.05. This spike in withdrawals and drop in deposits suggests renewed demand, which could ease the year-to-date selling pressure on XRP, currently down over 42%. Additionally, Binance's XRP reserves have decreased in recent months, potentially limiting future sell-offs.
Large holders are significantly increasing their XRP holdings through strategic exchange withdrawals, with whale wallets moving over 1 million XRP tokens accounting for over 55% of all withdrawals from Binance. Similarly, sharks holding between 100K and 1 million XRP accounted for 24.5% of withdrawals on the platform. On Coinbase, sharks represented 55.8% of withdrawals while whales accounted for another 15%. This concentrated accumulation has reduced the Exchange Supply Ratio to 0.03, meaning less XRP is available for immediate selling and reducing potential sell-side pressure. The substantial whale activity suggests institutional confidence despite current market uncertainty.
XRP has proposed a comprehensive six-part upgrade to the XRP Ledger that aims to overcome major barriers limiting institutional adoption of public blockchains. The upgrade package introduces confidential transfers that hide transaction amounts while ensuring legitimacy, along with sponsored fees to simplify user onboarding, batch transactions, permission delegation, dynamic NFTs, and node performance improvements. These changes specifically target privacy concerns, reduce customer onboarding friction, and enhance operational flexibility for banks and corporations. The adoption depends on at least 80% validator approval over two weeks, with no set implementation date yet announced.
SBI Holdings has reaffirmed its exposure to Ripple by telling investors that its Ripple shareholding carries an estimated value of ¥6.6 trillion, equivalent to approximately $41.2 billion at current exchange rates. According to reports from SBI, the company cited this valuation during its first-quarter earnings presentation despite weaker XRP prices and sluggish crypto market conditions. SBI has maintained a relationship with Ripple for roughly a decade, forming SBI Ripple Asia in 2016 to promote blockchain-based payments and settlement services across Japan and other Asian markets. The company stressed that "the Ripple shareholding alone is worth ¥6.6 trillion," demonstrating strong confidence in its long-term investment despite recent market volatility and regulatory uncertainty.
Despite whale accumulation, traders remain divided about XRP's price direction for August, with 67% of Kalshi traders expecting XRP to trade between $1 and $1.25 by year-end. The chances of XRP rising above $1.10 are higher at 86%, while odds of trading above $1.20 are 38%. However, there's a 50% chance of falling below $1, with 11% odds of breaking below $0.90 in August. Kalshi priced the probability of XRP ending 2026 above $1.25 at around 39%. The weekly RSI divergence suggests selling pressure, with $0.95 as the closest area of interest and $0.75 as this year's low having a 63% probability. However, holding the top of the two-and-a-half-year range at $0.95 could weaken the bearish scenario, potentially keeping XRP between $1 and $1.25.
The company's comments indicate that SBI continues to treat its Ripple relationship as a long-term strategic investment rather than a short-term position tied solely to XRP's price performance. SBI expects its planned acquisition of Bitbank to help increase its crypto customer base to about three million accounts and lift assets under custody to approximately ¥870 billion. The group's blockchain strategy is no longer limited to Ripple, with the Canton Network unit and new investment fund showing SBI is broadening its digital asset exposure even as XRP and its crypto division face near-term pressure. This strategic diversification demonstrates SBI's commitment to building a comprehensive digital asset ecosystem despite current market challenges and regulatory uncertainty.
