XRP has consolidated around $1.40 as the cryptocurrency largely remains rangebound between support at $1.30 and resistance at $1.40, reflecting a softening appetite for both digital investment products and derivatives. The latest data shows futures Open Interest (OI) averaging $2.5 billion on Monday, representing a sharp contrast to the July peak of $10.94 billion, highlighting persistent skepticism among retail participants about XRP's ability to maintain an uptrend over the short to medium term. According to latest reports, the breakthrough came after Trump's Project Freedom announcement triggered a market pump, with the operation involving 15,000 troops, guided-missile destroyers, and over 100 aircraft from the U.S. Central Command. The rally was accompanied by significant short liquidations, with Coinglass logging over $285 million in short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $160 million in Bitcoin short positions alone. However, over $480 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $329 million in short positions alone wiped out, indicating heightened volatility amid geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical tensions have intensified after an Iranian drone struck a key UAE oil facility, while authorities said they intercepted three missiles, with a fourth crashing into the sea. Iran said it had no pre-planned intention to attack the UAE's oil facilities, but the incident was a result of "U.S. military adventurism" in the Strait of Hormuz, according to state media. Iran's action comes after President Donald Trump announced a new initiative called "Project Freedom," aimed at helping ships and crews from non-involved countries "safely" navigate out of the Strait of Hormuz. The incident has unsettled investors, with stocks declining on Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 557.37 points, or 1.13%, to close at 48,941.90, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.41% to end at 7,200.75 and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite lost 0.19% to finish at 25,067.80. Oil prices spiked significantly, with the United States Oil Fund closing up 3.37% at $147.61.
XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to signal softening institutional interest, with outflows totaling $35,210 last week according to SoSoValue data. The cumulative inflows stand at $1.29 billion with net assets averaging $1.06 billion, indicating that institutional buyers are taking profits or reducing exposure. This represents a significant shift from the previous consolidation pattern where XRP had been trading in a narrow range between $1.35 and $1.41. The ETF market shows structural weakness with the daily ETF inflow streak snapping on April 30 with a $5.83 million outflow, removing the primary source of buying pressure that previously supported the $1.40 level. The XRP ETF has minimal bearish positioning with short interest at just 1.32% of the float and a days-to-cover ratio of 0.3.
Technical analysis shows XRP consolidating just under a dense band of moving-average resistance, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.41 and the 20-day Bollinger middle band converging at the same level overhead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the neutral 50 midline on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram slipping marginally into negative territory suggest mixed momentum after the latest bounce. The token faces a critical supply overhang that has prevented sustained rallies above $1.45, with approximately 36.8 billion XRP—roughly 60% of the entire circulating supply—held at an average cost basis of $1.44, representing millions of wallets underwater with roughly $50.8 billion in unrealized losses. The 20-day moving average at $1.41 has flipped from support to resistance, while the 50-day SMA at $1.39 provides a fragile floor.
The most likely outcome is XRP retesting $1.45 again on current momentum, but holding above it requires more than just Project Freedom's macro tailwinds. Standard Chartered estimates $4 to $8 billion in extra XRP ETF inflows if the Clarity Act clears the committee, which would be sufficient to absorb the 1.16 billion XRP overhead at $1.44-$1.45 and push the price through $1.50 and beyond. On the topside, initial resistance is at the 50-day EMA near $1.41, which aligns closely with the Bollinger midline boundary, with the Bollinger upper band around $1.47 preceding a more strategic barrier at the descending trendline break level near $1.50. A sustained move through this cluster would open the way toward the 200-day EMA up at $1.74. On the downside, immediate support is indicated by the Bollinger lower band around $1.36, with a daily close below this level signaling that sellers are regaining control and potentially exposing a deeper retracement within the broader range.
