According to analysis from BeInCrypto, XRP has consistently underperformed against NVIDIA since 2021, with the cryptocurrency's relative strength line showing a persistent decline. The analysis reveals that all four breakouts since 2021 have resulted in sharp drops from peaks rather than sustained rallies, with XRP falling a median 39% over the next twelve weeks after each breakout attempt. This pattern contradicts the current bullish setup that suggests a break above the long-running resistance line could mark the start of XRP's next major move. The breakouts have been particularly damaging, with not a single twelve-week window ending in positive territory - a stark contrast to the normal twelve-week period without breaks that typically returns about negative 2%. As per BeInCrypto's technical analysis, the pattern behaves more like market exhaustion than a bullish signal, with only one of four breaks showing recovery by twenty-six weeks.
The analysis tested the breakout pattern using weekly closes instead of the analyst's five-day chart to ensure the results were harder to manipulate. As reported by BeInCrypto, only one of four breaks was up at four weeks, none were up at twelve weeks, and one had recovered by twenty-six weeks. The base rate analysis showed that a normal twelve-week period without any break typically returned about negative 2%, making the breakout pattern behave more like market exhaustion than a bullish signal. The analysis also found that XRP shows a falling relative-strength line against only NVIDIA and Bitcoin, while other major assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq do not exhibit this pattern. What makes the NVIDIA comparison uniquely damaging is that XRP shows the same falling relative-strength line only against Bitcoin as well, but a Bitcoin break preceded a modest 5% rise while the NVIDIA break preceded the 39% wipeout - suggesting the relationship with the chip giant carries an outsized negative signal.
According to BeInCrypto's on-chain analysis, the failure of the most recent breakout was attributed to significant selling pressure from holders. The report indicates that around early July 2025, XRP exchange net position change turned sharply positive, with holders moving coins to exchanges to sell into strength near XRP's mid-2025 peak above $3. Additionally, XRP hodler net position change turned negative around July 17 and remained red through August, suggesting that even high-conviction holders sold during the correction. This on-chain weakness explains why the breakout lacked underlying demand support. The selling pressure choked off any momentum the breakout might have generated, with coins flowing onto trading platforms in large numbers - a classic precursor to selling. The on-chain data from the most recent failed breakout helps explain why the move ended in exhaustion rather than ignition.
As reported by BeInCrypto, for a genuine bullish signal, XRP would need to rise by approximately 459% against NVIDIA just to reach the comparison line again. The analysis emphasizes that even a clean break would require continuous on-chain support, such as sustained exchange outflows and consistent holder accumulation. While recent flows have turned more constructive with coins leaving exchanges and long-term holders starting to add again, XRP price near $1.16 remains far below its previous highs. The immediate price backdrop is shaky, with XRP slumping 3.4% on Wednesday, briefly losing the $1.15 support level as trading volumes exploded 170% above normal. The Fear and Greed Index has sunk to 15, signaling extreme fear, while technical levels underscore the fragility with XRP remaining below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
For now, XRP is coiling inside a year-long symmetrical triangle with support near $1.10 and resistance at $1.25. The pattern is approaching its apex, and traders expect a sharp move once it resolves. However, the immediate price backdrop remains shaky, with spot outflows during the latest rally suggesting derivatives positioning rather than genuine accumulation. The triangle setup often produces violent reversals when longs get squeezed, as one analyst noted that "the triangle will resolve, it always does, but waiting at current prices means sitting inside a binary outcome with limited room to add before the move." Some analysts see glimmers of hope, with crypto commentator Diana noting that the Ichimoku Cloud has flipped green and momentum oscillators are recovering, setting the stage for another test of $1.30. A decisive close above that level could confirm a breakout, with targets at $1.34 to $1.36, then $1.47, and eventually $1.65. However, others urge restraint, with CryptoCharged pointing out that a $21 XRP would require a $1.3 trillion market cap, and $44 would push the valuation near $3 trillion - close to the entire cryptocurrency market's current size.
