XRP Ledger activity has fallen to unusually low levels, with daily active addresses dropping to just 25,350 on July 9th and 24,887 on July 10th - the second-lowest figures of 2026. According to Santiment, these figures represent the lowest daily network growth since November 2024, at only 2,130 new addresses. The data suggests that traders and investors are waiting on the sidelines to buy a real move instead of chasing shallow price bounces, similar to the patterns seen in mid-June and early April. XRP's Network Value to Transactions Ratio currently stands at 162.86, indicating elevated readings that suggest on-chain network activity has not accelerated enough to support a stronger market valuation. This metric compares the asset's market capitalization to the value of transactions occurring on its network, with the current elevated reading pointing to limited evidence of fresh capital replacing positions being closed.
XRP funding rates remain at extreme lows throughout 2026, with the 30-day aggregate staying negative despite the over 70% correction from the July 2025 high of $3.66. According to AMBCrypto analysis, analyst Darkfost believes this bearish consensus might serve as a clue for a medium-term reversal scenario similar to April 2025, when sustained negative aggregate funding rates preceded a 126% rally. The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) for the past 90 days has been in neutral territory, tracking aggressive market participation, with trends showing a decline since March 2025, though not yet taker sell-dominant. Exchange net position change has been negative in recent months, with XRP tokens flowing out of exchanges likely to cold storage and accumulation, though this outflow activity is not as heavy as the 2025 periods. Open interest in Binance futures has dropped to around 397 million XRP, the lowest in over three months, indicating traders are closing leveraged positions and reducing exposure.
Social media sentiment turned most bullish on XRP in five weeks even as the token fell, creating a setup that historically favors sellers. According to Santiment, XRP drew 3.02 bullish social media comments for every bearish one on Monday, its most positive reading in five weeks, while ether ran at 2.31 and bitcoin at 1.40, which the firm classified as neutral. This pattern of retail traders heavily buying while prices fall is often viewed as a warning of further short-term downside rather than an imminent rebound. Bitcoin's relatively flat sentiment looks healthier, as rallies tend to have more room to run when investors have not already piled into the higher-priced, more established asset. Analysts at Santiment note that crypto typically moves opposite to what the crowd is loudly expecting, with heavy bullishness on XRP or ether while prices dip adding short-term downside risk or slowing any rebound.
XRP is currently trading at $1.09, with the price declining toward this level amid ongoing market uncertainty. Despite this decline, XRP faces technical resistance below key moving averages, and network upgrade challenges add to investor concerns, influencing sentiment and price action. According to AMBCrypto analysis, spot volume trends backed the idea that traders are waiting for real moves instead of chasing shallow bounces, with the spot CVD trends showing reduced buying since March 2025, though it briefly flared in May before quickly evaporating. Holding above $1.10 is considered important for maintaining current levels, with resistance sitting near $1.19 and further upside toward $1.38 possible on a sustained break. XRP's price increased by about 1.6% following SWIFT's announcement of a blockchain payments pilot involving 17 banks, including those connected to Ripple, with the pilot testing distributed ledger technology for international payments. A failure to hold $1.00 could open the path toward lower supports near $0.87, as noted by analyst CasiTrades.
A more constructive outlook would likely require stronger capital inflows, renewed futures participation and improving on-chain activity, until which conditions emerge, the available metrics continue to indicate that sellers retain the advantage. As reported by AMBCrypto, spot volume trends need to undergo a big shift to enable such a rally, and the current bearish consensus might serve as a clue for a medium-term reversal similar to previous patterns. The combination of reduced derivatives leverage, poor on-chain activity, and high Network Value to Transactions Ratio creates a complex market dynamic where price movements may be more dependent on fundamental supply-demand factors than traditional derivatives-driven volatility. Analysts suggest that while many have been calling bottoms throughout the correction, XRP's current positioning at key support levels requires careful monitoring for potential directional shifts, with the current sideways movement around $1.10 support reflecting the broader market uncertainty.
