XRP price sits less than 1% above the floor of a three-month rising channel after smart money's quiet exit on May 17 triggered a chain of bearish technical signals. According to reports from Smart Money Alert, the Smart Money Index, a gauge that estimates informed investor intent, fell below its signal line on May 17. The last time this happened was in late April, when XRP slid roughly 7% over the course of a few days, setting a precedent for current market behavior.
The exit aligned with fresh weakness in moving averages, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) touching the 50-day EMA and about to close beneath it. As reported by Smart Money Alert, a confirmed bearish cross would mark short-term momentum flipping bearish for the first time in months. The structure itself adds another bearish signal, as XRP has traded inside a rising channel since February 6, with the recent slide from the May 14 peak pushing price back to the channel's lower edge.
On-chain data reinforces the bearish sentiment, with the cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP increasing its share of supply from 16.81% to a peak of 17.63% on May 12, before trimming it to 17.37% since then. According to Smart Money Alert, Glassnode's Exchange Net Position Change showed a positive reading of 9.14 million XRP on May 17, marking the lightest single-day inflow since April 24. Despite this easing, the figure remains firmly positive, indicating retail continues selling on net.
XRP needs to avoid a daily close beneath $1.36 to maintain the bull channel integrity, with the current price sitting roughly 1% above that floor. As reported by Smart Money Alert, a breakdown below $1.36 would confirm the channel's end and open the path to $1.27, representing a 7% slide from current levels. For any rebound to carry strength, XRP must first reclaim $1.48, with the next resistance level at $1.56. The pattern nuance suggests rising channel structures often deliver false breakdowns before resuming the trend.
