XRP is trading near $1.08 after losing 1.09% over 24 hours and 5.48% across seven days, marking a significant decline from recent levels. The token has moved between $1.07 and $1.10 with trading volume reaching approximately $836 million, while its market capitalization stands at $67.36 billion, keeping XRP sixth among cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. According to market analysis, if it holds, it could become the foundation for the next move. However, if the support fails, $0.87 remains the next major support to watch. This current testing phase reflects the mixed signals from different market indicators, with the latest decline pushing XRP toward its lowest price in ten days after buyers failed to hold the rebound above $1.10.
Large transactions on the XRP Ledger have dropped sharply, with whale transactions worth more than $1 million falling from 70 over the previous week to only two on July 13. As reported by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the number of transfers worth more than $1 million has cooled significantly, pointing to less participation from large holders. However, this data does not show whether whales stopped buying, moved activity off-chain, or split transfers into smaller amounts. Lower whale activity can reduce buying support during a weak market, especially when daily trading volume also remains limited. The broader context shows that XRP exchange balances have fallen to a seven-year low while spot funds and private wallets absorbed supply, though this decline has not lifted the price because market demand has remained too weak to overcome the broader downtrend.
XRP investment products recorded more than $7 million in net withdrawals last week, ending nine straight weeks of inflows and marking a significant reversal in institutional sentiment. The reversal followed a period when XRP funds attracted capital even as Bitcoin and Ethereum products faced withdrawals. Earlier demand had helped regulated XRP funds build a large position, but one negative week shows that institutional interest can change when market conditions weaken. XRP ETFs had absorbed close to one billion tokens while exchange reserves dropped by about half, creating a tighter tradable float. However, the supply shift created by ETF accumulation has not translated into price appreciation, as XRP continued to fall despite the significant supply reduction. The difference between fund accumulation and price performance shows that ETF demand alone has not controlled the market, with traders now monitoring whether outflows continue or whether the latest red week becomes a brief interruption in the longer inflow trend.
Technical indicators show XRP positioned in the lower half of its recent trading range, with Bollinger Bands placing the token slightly below the middle band near $1.0879. The upper band stands around $1.1619 and the lower band near $1.0140, with holding above the lower band keeping the token away from a deeper breakdown. The Aroon Oscillator remains positive near 21.43, showing some recent upward pressure exists, though the reading has weakened, pointing to fading rebound momentum. Analyst Grega Horvat identified $1 and $0.95 as support levels on the four-hour chart, stating that "trend is down until it is not." A move above the middle band and the $1.09 to $1.10 area would give buyers an early recovery signal, while a close below the lower Bollinger Band could bring $1 and $0.95 back into focus. A recovery above $1.10 would improve the short-term structure and could open a move toward the upper Bollinger Band near $1.16, though EGRAG Crypto argues the token needs a bounce toward the 50-period moving average near $1.60 before a longer rally can restart.
The combination of declining whale activity, weakening ETF flows, and geopolitical tensions creates a challenging environment for XRP's near-term prospects. Renewed tension between the United States and Iran has weighed on risk assets and helped push XRP below the lower end of its recent trading range, with the token now sitting close to the psychological $1 level that traders have defended several times since June. The broader crypto market weakness, with Bitcoin slipping below $63,000 and Ether trading near $1,785, matters because XRP has followed broader risk sentiment during recent selloffs. A stronger market rebound could support the token, while renewed pressure across assets may keep buyers cautious near current levels. The main short-term battle now sits between support near $1.01 and resistance around $1.10, with the current price action reflecting the market's wait-and-see approach focused on fundamental catalysts rather than speculative partnership announcements.
