Bitcoin options expiring July 8 have turned call-heavy, with traders positioning for higher prices as the Federal Reserve prepares to release minutes from its June meeting. According to Glassnode, call volume reached 6,258 contracts over 24 hours against 3,610 puts on Deribit, delivering a put-call ratio of 0.58. The heaviest call bets sit well above spot, including a large cluster near the $69,000 strike, while put open interest stays between $58,000 and $62,000, pointing to lighter downside hedging. The expiry holds about 628 contracts worth $39.3 million in notional value, representing a fraction of the late-June monthly settlement that cleared billions across Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The upcoming FOMC Minutes release on July 8th adds significant event risk to Bitcoin's price action, with the minutes from the June 16-17 meeting arriving at 2 p.m. ET. Policymakers held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, the fourth straight hold, with the meeting marking the first led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. His hawkish policy debut sent Bitcoin and gold lower on June 17, with nine of 18 officials projecting a rate hike later in 2026 and the statement dropping its easing bias. The minutes will show how firm that hawkish turn was, with crypto analysts warning that Bitcoin's bear market may not be over, citing historical patterns from previous cycles.
Bitcoin's spot price sat near $62,645 as of this writing, down 0.3% over 24 hours, with the $63,000 level remaining elusive since the last week of June. The $63,000 has proven short-lived for weekend breaches, with the pioneer crypto struggling to maintain momentum above this key resistance level. Despite the relief bounce towards $62K, short positions were piling up as Bitcoin attempted to reclaim $62K, with over $2 billion in short positions commanding a 57% dominance as of the time of writing. This means Bitcoin traders are increasingly bearish after the relief bounce towards $62K, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze, though the $62.3K and $65K overhead hurdles must be cleared for a sustained recovery.
According to Glassnode, the options market is currently pricing in low future volatility for BTC, with upside expectations remaining unchanged while seeing less demand for short exposure. Analysts frame the fading demand for downside protection as a possible turning point, suggesting this could be the first sign of optimism returning to the options market. However, the calm cuts both ways, as light hedging means any surprise in the FOMC minutes could move price sharply into the expiry. Whether Bitcoin holds above $63,000 into Wednesday may hinge on how traders interpret the minutes, with the coming session set to show whether call buyers or the Fed set the near-term tone for Bitcoin's price action.
