Robinhood stock rebounded over 2% on Thursday, trading at $88.55 after moving between $83.68 and $89.48 during the session. Despite the recovery, HOOD remains about 26% below its July high near $120 and continues trading below its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The stock had closed Wednesday at $89.84 before coming under renewed selling pressure, but Thursday's recovery kept it above its 200-day simple moving average at approximately $86.52. According to latest reports, Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $160 price target, implying roughly 81% upside from Thursday's close, while Goldman Sachs also retained a Buy rating but reduced its 12-month target from $137 to $118, still implying more than 33% upside.
Robinhood reported second-quarter net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year from $989 million, exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of approximately $1.26 billion. Event contracts generated $156 million during the quarter, surpassing the company's $100 million in crypto trading revenue and demonstrating the growing importance of prediction markets in Robinhood's business mix. Prediction markets are becoming a larger part of Robinhood's business as weaker digital-asset activity weighs on transaction revenue, with Bernstein cutting its estimate for Robinhood's 2026 crypto trading revenue by 49% to reflect lower market volumes. The figures show that prediction markets are offsetting the impact of weaker crypto trading activity on overall transaction revenue.
Rothera has handled more than 3.5 billion contracts and generated $17 million in second quarter revenue, continuing its expansion since going live in June. According to Bernstein analysts, Rothera processed 2.1 billion contracts during the second quarter alone, becoming the third-largest prediction market exchange in the United States. The exchange was initially launched with economic-data and baseball contracts in a late-May soft launch, followed by World Cup markets self-certified on May 27 and live for the tournament's June 11 opening. Management expects a greater share of prediction market flow to migrate to Rothera over time, while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges and retaining the longer-term optionality to offer Rothera as a business-to-business platform for other Futures Commission Merchants.
Beyond trading volumes, Bernstein said Robinhood's strategy increasingly resembles a financial infrastructure business rather than a brokerage focused only on crypto transactions. The analysts grouped Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks as complementary products that could diversify revenue over time. Robinhood Chain has processed more than $12 billion in DEX volume and over 150 million transactions since launch, while Robinhood Earn has accumulated more than $200 million in customer deposits. Tokenized U.S. stocks are now available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending the company's reach beyond its core brokerage platform. The company has also opened its Agentic Trading platform to its full customer base, letting customers connect artificial intelligence agents through Robinhood's Model Context Protocol server and assign specific investing tasks.
Robinhood's daily chart remains technically weak despite Thursday's rebound, with the stock trading below its 20-day moving average at $103.79, 50-day average at $96.67, and 100-day average at $99.30. The cluster between $96.67 and $103.79 creates a broad resistance area, and a close above the 50-day average would be the first sign that buyers are regaining control. Bear-bull power stood at minus 20.01, showing that sellers still hold the near-term advantage, with negative bars expanding during the latest retreat. A sustained break below $83.68 could expose the June consolidation area around $75 to $80, while holding above the 200-day average and reclaiming $96.67 would improve the technical outlook. Bernstein's $160 target depends on Robinhood converting newer products into durable revenue as crypto trading slows, with the next test being whether prediction markets and tokenization can continue expanding without tighter regulation limiting their contribution.
