President Donald Trump delivered his strongest public endorsement yet of prediction markets and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's regulatory authority, declaring it 'critically important' for the CFTC to maintain 'exclusive authority' over the rapidly expanding industry. In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump praised CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and blasted state officials who have challenged companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and Crypto.com over sports-event contracts and other prediction-style trading products. As reported by CoinDesk, Trump warned that rival countries want to displace the US as the global Bitcoin capital, framing prediction markets alongside Bitcoin as industries where regulatory clarity could decide whether the US keeps its lead. In his latest post, Trump escalated his rhetoric, calling state officials 'SCUM' and declaring that 'under my leadership, we are setting rules of the road that are the Gold Standard for the States.'
Trump's post praised CFTC Chairman Mike Selig directly, thanking him for steering the agency's expanding authority over event contracts. As reported by CoinDesk, Selig is the sole sitting commissioner of the typically five-seat CFTC. The framing places prediction markets alongside Bitcoin as industries where regulatory clarity could decide whether the US keeps its lead. Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in a May 2026 funding round, signaling fast institutional adoption, while Polymarket has also emerged as a major player in the prediction market space. The CFTC, led by Chair Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, has firmly backed the companies' fight, including through lawsuits against states like New York, Illinois and Minnesota over their crackdown efforts.
New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed lawsuits alleging some prediction market offerings violate state gambling laws, while Illinois regulators issued cease-and-desist orders. Minnesota recently became the first state to effectively ban prediction markets through legislation after Gov. Tim Walz signed a bill imposing criminal penalties tied to the products. Chris Christie, representing the American Gaming Association, has repeatedly argued states should retain authority over gambling-style products, while 38 state attorneys general joined James in backing Massachusetts in its lawsuit against Kalshi. JB Pritzker, Governor of Illinois, has also joined the fray, stating that 'the most corrupt President in our nation's history wants to make sure states like ours can't regulate prediction markets so his family and administration can keep profiting.' Legal observers expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court, with the industry currently sitting in regulatory limbo until resolution.
Trump's family already has multiple connections to the prediction market sector, with Donald Trump Jr. serving as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Trump supporters Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, recently launched its own prediction market platform and filed to self-certify parlay-style contracts. Trump Media & Technology Group announced plans last year to integrate prediction markets into Truth Social through a partnership with Crypto.com. Despite Trump's reservations about the broader gambling explosion, his latest Truth Social post leaves little doubt where his administration stands in the escalating fight between federal regulators and states over the future of prediction markets.
The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, led by Rep. James Comer (R-KY), announced Friday that it was launching an investigation into prediction market firms Kalshi and Polymarket over allegations tied to insider trading safeguards. Meanwhile, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) recently introduced legislation that would prohibit federal campaign funds from being used on prediction market wagers. Other Democrats are pushing for broader restrictions, with Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) having proposed legislation banning prediction markets tied to politics, sports, and military conflicts. Selig has continuously defended the federal government's role in regulating prediction markets, stating 'States cannot circumvent the clear directive of Congress' in an April statement announcing a lawsuit against Wisconsin.
