The US Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.058% on July 9, marking the strongest 30-year Treasury yield at auction since 2007. According to reports from Barchart, the auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.44x, in line with recent sales, while indirect bidders, mostly foreign investors, took nearly 78% of the supply. Market commentators noted the yield was the highest since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, reflecting investor demand for 2007-era compensation levels. The result shows investors now require 2007-era compensation to lend to the US government for three decades, demonstrating the significant shift in market sentiment toward longer-term US government debt.
Bitcoin's apparent demand metric has remained negative for 208 consecutive days, recently dropping to a fresh low of -273,000 BTC - the worst reading in this entire stretch. As reported by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, this metric works by comparing newly mined Bitcoin from block rewards against the movement of existing supply already in circulation. When the reading turns negative, it means old coins are re-entering the market faster than fresh capital is arriving to absorb them. From November 2025 through May 2026, the reading hovered quietly between 0 and -150,000 BTC, reflecting mild but steady distribution. Since then, it has dropped sharply and flatlined near the -273,000 level, with sellers winning this market for seven months straight. The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero for 46 consecutive days since mid-May, signaling that Bitcoin is trading cheaper on the primary institutional on-ramp, while spot Bitcoin ETF flows have recorded consecutive weeks of net outflows during the same period.
Swelling federal debt issuance continues to pressure longer maturities, with each record interest bill forcing the Treasury to borrow more and add further bond supply. As reported by Barchart, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, while its latest minutes revealed a split on rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh. The committee held at 3.50–3.75% in June, a fourth straight hold, then turned hawkish in the projections: the Fed's SEP median dot for end-2026 jumped to 3.80% from 3.40%, with nine of eighteen participants now penciling a hike. We still expect a hold that resolves lower, with the inflation spike fading as energy reverses and a first cut likely around the turn of the year.
Despite the bearish on-chain signals, prominent investors maintain optimistic long-term price targets. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes Bitcoin is already in a bottoming process, pointing to the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio holding its floor even as gold has pulled back, maintaining a $730,000 price target by 2030. Anthony Scaramucci has framed current conditions in starker terms: "Max pessimism is the entry point. Every bottom looked like this." Kevin O'Leary sees Bitcoin ranging between $80,000 and $200,000 once regulatory clarity arrives, with a ceiling he believes will break significantly once the asset receives a formal commodity designation. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 22, deep in extreme fear territory, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $62,852 on July 9, 2026, down sharply from its all-time high of over $109,000 hit in late 2025 and roughly $47,000 below where it stood a year ago.
Around 23 governments are estimated to hold bitcoin and more than 40 have signaled intent, but the demand is not one thing. Most large state holdings are seized or custodial rather than bought, led by the United States at roughly 328,000 coins and the United Kingdom. A policy tier is now forming: the proposed BITCOIN Act could see the US Treasury buy as early as the fourth quarter, and Brazil is advancing a bill targeting 5% of reserves, with exploratory intent beyond, from Pakistan to other signals. The mechanism is rebalancing discipline, not sentiment. Bitcoin typically sits in model portfolios at a strategic 1% to 3% weight, reallocated on a quarterly or threshold-triggered basis. Consider an advisor who placed a client at 2% Bitcoin alongside 59% global equities and 39% bonds. The entry point determines where the next bid may sit. A January 2025 allocation has seen Bitcoin fall 37% against a 32% equity gain, drifting the sleeve to roughly 1.04% and putting the 1% lower band within 4% of today's price.
