A single trader on Polymarket lost nearly $1 million when Cape Verde held Spain to a stunning 0-0 draw on Monday, according to trading records from the prediction market exchange. The losing bettor had wagered on what oddsmakers saw as a nearly certain Spanish win, with Spain's odds of winning standing at an average of around 92% when the user placed the massive unsuccessful bet. As reported by Polymarket Sports, the user went by the screen name 'betoor619' and had never won or lost more than $9,000 on an individual event before the Cape Verde game. The potential payout of $1,085,943.48 evaporated in 90 minutes of football played against a team that, per Polymarket's own pre-match odds, had less than a 1% chance of winning the entire World Cup. The draw was as high as 13-1 at some sportsbooks, with only 2% of bets at BetMGM on the draw outcome. The outcome was by far the most unexpected result in the first few days of a tournament that has already seen a number of surprising draws, including Japan's late comeback on Sunday to tie with the Netherlands.
The outcome was by far the most unexpected result in the first few days of a tournament that has already seen a number of surprising draws, including Japan's late comeback on Sunday to tie with the Netherlands. According to Polymarket Sports, Spain, the reigning European champions on a 30-match unbeaten run, faced Cape Verde—a small Atlantic archipelago nation ranked 67th in the FIFA standings, appearing at a World Cup for the first time in history. The match ended 0-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with Cape Verde having come through Confederation of African Football (CAF) qualifying with seven wins, two draws, and a single defeat—avoiding the inter-confederation playoffs entirely. Cape Verde's goalkeeper Josimar Évora, aka 'Vozinha', made eight decisive saves in the match, stopping a Ferran Torres shot in the corner and pushing a Mikel Oyarzabal header over the crossbar. Spain dominated possession with 74%, outshot Cape Verde 23-6 and had an 11-1 advantage on corner kicks, but was unable to find the back of the net despite bringing on superstar Lamine Yamal in the 71st minute. As reported by Caesars Sportsbook head Mark Bickerdike, "From a trading perspective, this was a significant result for the trading floor, with Spain heavily backed by bettors across both straight bets and parlays."
Behind the unlikely triumph was Josimar José Évora Dias, or Vozinha as he is known, the goalkeeper who made eight decisive saves in the match. As reported by Polymarket Sports, Vozinha said visa issues—in particular a new requirement that visitors from certain countries, including Cape Verde, post a refundable bond of up to $15,000—prevented his mother from attending his historic World Cup debut. He won player of the match and described the game as the moment he had been working toward his 'entire life.' The scoreline was so improbable it drew immediate comparisons to the biggest upsets in World Cup history, with Cape Verde's shot counter stopped at 27 versus Spain's six*. The next match for both teams is on Sunday: Spain takes on Saudi Arabia at 12 p.m. ET, while Cape Verde plays Uruguay at 6 p.m. ET.
Prediction markets have emerged from obscurity over the last few years to become popular places to bet on the global tournament, with Polymarket users making a total of $64 million of trades on Monday's game with Spain. According to Polymarket Sports, customers use cryptocurrency wallets that allow them to operate under pseudonyms without revealing their real-world identities or locations. The platform's public trading records show that if Spain had won, bettor619 would have only made around $85,000 on an original bet of almost $1.1 million. Meanwhile, on Kalshi and Polymarket combined, the 2026 World Cup winner market has crossed $2.34 billion in volume. A Bloomberg analysis published in April 2026 found that since January 2025, more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts had recorded losses of at least $1,000—nearly double the number of wallets posting comparable gains. Spain to win was the most-bet World Cup wager on Monday at BetMGM, both by total wagers and total dollars, as many bettors had the Spaniards as part of their parlays, with nearly 95% of the handle on Spain to win.
On the other side of the massive bet, Polymarket user 'Fishalive' made a brilliant counter-trade by buying 'No' on Spain winning at just 9¢ per share, netting a $4.3 million profit. According to Polymarket Sports, Fishalive bought over 4.7 million shares at that price when the market was pricing Spain at 92%. When the final whistle confirmed the 0-0 draw, those 'No' shares resolved at 100¢ each, delivering a $4.3 million profit on a position worth $4.7 million. This demonstrates how prediction markets can work effectively when traders price in scenarios that the crowd dismisses, though the question remains whether this represents edge or luck. A University of Toronto-led academic study covering 2.4 million users found that 68.8% had lost money since 2022, and that users who lose money disproportionately trade at extreme prices—below 10¢ or above 90¢. Spain to win was the most-bet World Cup wager on Monday at BetMGM, both by total wagers and total dollars, as many bettors had the Spaniards as part of their parlays, with nearly 95% of the handle on Spain to win.
