A comprehensive U.S. survey of 1,000 adults has revealed significant financial challenges in the prediction market sector. According to the BadCredit.org survey, 79% of users reported losses during the past year, with 27% losing more than $500 and 9% losing over $1,000. Only 21% of users managed to avoid losses entirely. The survey found that 51% of users borrowed funds to place bets, with 88% of borrowers reporting losses compared to 69% of non-borrowers. As reported by BadCredit.org, the study covered users of platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt during a period of rapid trading growth and continued regulatory debate.
The survey revealed that 53% of users joined for income-related reasons, nearly twice the share motivated by entertainment or curiosity. According to the study, 44% wanted to earn extra income, while 9% were struggling financially and needed additional money sources. 27% were attracted by entertainment or curiosity, 10% by social-media content, and 7% by recommendations from friends or relatives. The income findings come as prediction markets offer contracts tied to elections, economic releases, cryptocurrency prices, sports, and other events, with participants generally buying contracts priced between $0 and $1. As noted by BadCredit.org, the study measured self-reported losses during the previous year but did not publish platform-level account records or calculate net returns from verified transaction histories.
The survey data shows significant gender differences in prediction market participation and beliefs. According to the study, 24% of men had tried a prediction-market platform, compared with 9% of women. Across all surveyed adults, 30% believed prediction markets could realistically improve their financial situation, with men expressing that belief more often at 37% versus 25% for women. The study found that 24% of men had tried a prediction-market platform, compared with 9% of women. BadCredit.org did not provide account-level data to determine whether bet sizes, contract choices, or returns differed by gender, as reported in the survey.
The survey findings coincide with unprecedented growth in prediction market activity. According to recent market data, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US generated a combined $50.59 billion in July trading volume, representing a 7.8% increase from $46.95 billion in June. Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion or about 74.5% of the combined figure, while Polymarket US grew 54% to $5 billion. The figures represent taker notional volume, not customer deposits, platform revenue, or trader losses. In July, the U.S. House Agriculture Committee scheduled a hearing focused on customer protection and market integrity as gaming groups pressed Congress to restrict sports-based contracts, as reported by BadCredit.org.
