The U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd may serve as Bitcoin's turning point, with historical data showing Bitcoin tends to decline in the year before the vote before forming a bottom. According to AMBCrypto analysis, Bitcoin could stall or drop before the vote, with the asset historically bottoming in the days before or shortly after the midterm elections. The crypto market has yet to flourish under President Trump's administration, held back by oil-driven inflation concerns and tariff wars that have tightened financial conditions across risk assets. Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $62,000-$65,000 over the past four weeks, with the asset currently near $64,000, roughly 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,000.
According to reports from crypto.news, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 77% decline from its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to below $16,000 by November 2022. This volatility has created a gap between traders who focus on price charts and readers seeking fundamental understanding. The analysis emphasizes that while price movements are easy to track, they provide the least useful information for understanding Bitcoin's mechanics, which remain constant regardless of market conditions.
On-chain analysis reveals profit realization metrics are approaching a critical crossover point, with the realized profit on Bitcoin crossing below the realized loss historically marking the start of an uptrend. As reported by AMBCrypto, the on-chain analysis draws on profit realization, which tracks how much profit investors have taken on Bitcoin, and loss realization, which tracks the reverse. The chart shows these two lines on the verge of making this crossover, which could ignite a strengthening bullish run across the market. U.S. investor sentiment remains weak, with netflow from U.S. investors at around $204.67 million this month, representing the lowest monthly bullish netflow ever recorded in the market if July closes at this level.
The latest Bitcoin outlook suggests that Bitcoin's current bear market may stretch through Q3 before forming a durable bottom, according to historically-reliable 4-year halving cycles. As reported by multiple sources, the cryptocurrency remains in a downtrend off the October 2025 high, forming consistent lower lows and lower highs with occasional sideways price action. Bitcoin currently trades near $64,000, roughly 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,000. The next support zone is projected in the mid-$50K range if year-to-date lows near $60K are broken, representing a roughly -60% drawdown from the peak. For bullish momentum to return, Bitcoin would need to break above previous support-turned-resistance in the $66K zone, followed by the May high near $83K.
Multiple on-chain metrics now converge between $44,000 and $47,000 as the most likely bottom window by October 2026. BeInCrypto research using regression analysis pointed to a bottom between $44,000 and $47,000, while Benjamin Cowen's recent analysis reached a similar zone near $44,000. The Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) already reads like a final bear leg, with peak temperatures falling from 10 in 2017 to 3.5 in 2024. Historical patterns suggest that traders should watch three key triggers: holder cost basis ratio touching one, a deeper accumulation trough, and a weekly close below $44,000. Until these signals emerge, short-lived bounces toward $65,000 deserve caution rather than chase behavior.
