Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald has identified that bitcoin is likely in the late stages of its current bear cycle, with historical patterns pointing to a potential bottom around October 2025. According to analysts led by Gareth Gacetta in a Tuesday report, the bank believes they are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback. As of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%, with the cryptocurrency trading around $59,500 at publication time. The analysts noted that across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, implying the current downturn could reach a low around late October if history repeats.
With crypto markets nearing a potential turning point, Cantor Fitzgerald is advising investors to shift their focus from speculative activity to networks with durable value accrual. The bank emphasized that crypto adoption is expanding across stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, onchain credit and DeFi, but usage alone does not drive token value. Instead, long-term winners will convert activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand. The report highlighted that Ether (ETH) and most major altcoins have underperformed bitcoin during the downturn, though decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenization sectors have shown relative resilience.
Cantor Fitzgerald has identified digital asset treasury companies as an overlooked investment theme, arguing the strongest firms are evolving beyond passive crypto holders into active operators that generate yield, build infrastructure and provide institutional access to digital assets. The bank initiated coverage of Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90, respectively. The report noted that Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash each have differentiated strengths, but still need to prove they can translate ecosystem growth into durable token demand.
Crypto markets have struggled in recent months, with bitcoin falling more than 50% from its late-2025 peak after a sharp June selloff driven by persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite. The bank cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks but said crypto's reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing. Cantor Fitzgerald identified Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns, while noting that bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
