Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Ethena with a $2 target price, representing a significant upside from the current $0.27 reference price. According to the bank's Wednesday research report, this valuation is contingent on USDe stablecoin supply reaching $40 billion by the end of 2028, which would represent an eightfold increase from current levels. The forecast positions Ethena to outperform both Bitcoin and Ether through 2028, with the bank setting intermediate targets of $0.42 by end-2026 and $1.10 by 2027 before the final upward trajectory. ENA traded at $0.27 on Wednesday, showing gains of 28% over the past week and 77% over the past month, with a market capitalization of about $2.65 billion according to CoinGecko data. The bank's analyst Geoff Kendrick noted that ENA's price would need to increase by about seven times to match its buyback program, citing Uniswap as a benchmark where the token roughly tripled after the bank began covering it in June 2026.
The bank's analysis reveals that Ethena's original yield engine was based on crypto basis trades, but has since expanded into DeFi, institutional lending, and basis trades tied to equities and commodities. As reported by Standard Chartered, these diversified sources currently yield a blended rate of 5.2%. The tokenized-asset market is projected to grow from $350 billion to $4 trillion by 2028, though Ethena must compete for this growth to convert it into consistent revenue. The bank also notes that real-world assets deployed on blockchains are expected to rise from about $40 billion to $2 trillion over the same period, with Ethena's white-label stablecoin and Ethena Pay businesses serving as additional revenue lines. Ethena has expanded into consumer payments through Ethena Pay, a USDe-based savings and spending app launched on the Avalanche network on September 1, 2025.
A fee switch approved by Ethena governance through a Snapshot vote in early September directs 95% of net revenue from certain business lines toward ENA buybacks once USDe reaches specific supply milestones. According to Standard Chartered's estimates, at a $25 billion USDe supply, this mechanism could yield $375 million in annual buybacks under certain assumptions, assuming a 6% gross protocol yield and 25% net revenue take rate. At a $40 billion USDe supply, the bank suggests buybacks could represent about 23% of ENA's market cap if token prices remain stable, which they consider unsustainable. They expect ENA's price to rise, lowering buybacks as a share of market value, similar to Uniswap's annual buyback rate of about 3% to 4%. The bank notes that vesting-related selling pressure is also set to decline, supporting long-term upside potential. The next verifiable checkpoint is USDe supply crossing the $7.5 billion fee-switch threshold, which is roughly $2.6 billion above its current level. USDe's supply has fallen from a peak above $10 billion to about $4.9 billion, and the protocol currently sits below the first threshold.
Standard Chartered's September 30 market snapshot placed Ethena near $0.27, with a market capitalization of about $2.65 billion. As reported by the bank, the token showed gains of roughly 28% over the preceding week and 77% over the preceding month. However, the immediate trading narrative presents a tension between strong momentum and the long-dated fundamental claim underlying the $2 target. Market conditions including weaker basis-trade returns, lower activity across relevant markets, or slower adoption of newer yield sources could reduce available income for buybacks, creating risks to the assumptions underlying the target price. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Ethena remained in the 'neutral' zone with 'low' chatter levels over the past day. The bank's price target implies an upside of 900% from current levels, with ENA's price up over 4% in the last 24 hours and trading at around $0.2. The buyback mechanism sits inside a wider set of changes to ENA's supply structure announced in late August, including the Foundation buying out locked tokens from seed investors and expanding investor token unlocks to a single batch on October 5, after which about 12% of total supply remains locked.
