According to a new working paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), banks may have significant influence over stablecoin adoption through deposit pricing strategies. Researchers Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro analyzed weekly data from January 2019 to June 2025, finding that a one-week, one basis point rise in average bank deposit rates predicted slower stablecoin growth. The study found that this small rate increase cut average ten-week growth in stablecoin market capitalization from about 15% to about 12%. Under the authors' preferred estimate, the effect was roughly three times larger, slowing growth to about 6%, though they noted some weakness in this methodology.
According to the latest AMBCrypto report, stablecoin payment volumes experienced a dramatic 45% surge to $482 billion as of September 2026, up from $331 billion in the same period last year. This growth was primarily driven by businesses, with stablecoin payment volumes received by businesses increasing by 37% from $179 billion to $246 billion. Despite this payment explosion, stablecoin supply remained flat above $300 billion, closing September at around $304 billion with less than 1% growth in 2026. The market is expected to hit $2 trillion by 2028, but experts believe stablecoin yield may be the missing catalyst to accelerate adoption.
Businesses dominated stablecoin payment volumes at 64% of total volumes, with consumer-to-business transaction counts nearly doubling as average payment sizes fell. B2B value grew faster than transaction count, while transfers between consumers gained share but still accounted for less than half of dollars moved. The Q3 period saw a record $72 billion in stablecoin payment volumes, with card-based spending exploding by 10x. Purchases under $50 accounted for 84% of the increase in visible card purchases, giving holders a way to spend small amounts without merchants adopting stablecoins directly.
According to reports from CNBC TV18, stablecoin payment activity reached around $390 billion in 2025, more than double the previous year's level, as estimated by global management consulting firm McKinsey in analysis with blockchain analytics firm Artemis Analytics. These digital tokens are designed to maintain a relatively stable value against assets, usually currencies such as the US dollar, and facilitate transfers between digital-asset platforms. They are also being explored for cross-border payments, remittances and business settlements, though this remains small compared with conventional payment networks. However, blockchain transaction volumes should not automatically be equated with payments for goods and services, as noted by industry experts.
The BIS findings add evidence to concerns raised by bank executives about stablecoin competition. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in January that as much as $6 trillion in deposits could move into stablecoins and related products offering returns, potentially reducing lending capacity and raising borrowing costs. The effect is partly based on where issuers place their reserves, as explained in a December Federal Reserve staff analysis that noted money placed in stablecoins can return to banks as issuer deposits. Larger, uninsured balances could require banks to keep more liquid assets and leave less room for long-term loans. The BIS paper suggests banks retain some influence over stablecoin adoption through deposit pricing, though the sample covers only one high-rate period and findings may change as yield-bearing stablecoins gain ground.
