Retail investors have submitted over $100 billion in orders for SpaceX IPO shares, exceeding the $75 billion deal size and resulting in total demand of 3.5 to 4 times the available stock. According to latest reports, retail orders rose from more than $70 billion earlier in the same day as orders continued building during the marketing period. The company is expected to allocate at least 20% of available shares to retail investors, but with the target offering size, many individual investors are likely to receive only a small portion of what they requested, while others may receive no shares at all. This retail frenzy reflects the strength of Elon Musk's investor following, with SpaceX drawing from the same culture of enthusiasm that has made Tesla one of the most loyal retail shareholder bases in the market.
The SpaceX IPO targets a $75 billion raise at $135 per share, with the company expected to sell 555.6 million shares at this price point. Based on the outstanding shares in its filings, the deal would value the company at around $1.8 trillion, making it the largest IPO ever, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion listing in 2019 by a wide margin. The S-1 filing confirms that no existing holders sold shares at listing, with insiders retaining roughly 95.8% of the equity. The company is preparing to trade on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker symbol SPCX, with pricing planned for later Thursday and trading expected Friday. The offering terms, including the $135 share price and the 555.6 million shares, are not expected to change materially. However, Morningstar analysts have already argued that SpaceX should be worth less than half of this $1.8 trillion figure, despite the IPO being multiple times oversubscribed.
SpaceX has received orders from about 1,000 institutional investors, with several large institutions, including sovereign wealth funds, expected to receive allocations of more than $1 billion each. As reported by multiple sources, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait Investment Authority have placed sizable orders, while Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment. International allocation remains limited, with SpaceX expected to allocate less than 10% of IPO shares to international orders, although Japan's allocation was increased earlier this month to $2.5 billion from $2 billion.
The SpaceX IPO represents a massive wealth event for early backers and private-market investors, with the company having raised more than $9 billion in venture funding over the last 24 years. Valor Equity Partners, which invested in SpaceX in 2008, owns about 4% of the company, worth almost $70 billion at $135 a share. Founders Fund holds roughly 3%, valued at more than $50 billion at the IPO price, while Sequoia Capital is also set to reap tens of billions from a stake of nearly 1.5%. One early space-focused investor who first bought into SpaceX in 2017 at a valuation of roughly $25 billion and invested 13 more times is expected to return well over $1 billion to investors. The listing creates one of the largest liquidity events the venture market has seen in years, with the proceeds expected to flow back into venture funds, space-tech startups and late-stage private companies.
Google or Alphabet holds about 5% of the company after the xAI merger diluted its earlier 6.11% stake, which could be worth up to $100 billion, a roughly 100x gain on its 2015 investment. Early venture backers sound the same alarm, with Space Capital founder Chad Anderson telling Fortune: "We've been invested for almost ten years, it's our business to return capital to investors." However, insiders keep roughly 95.8% of the equity and face 366-day lock-up agreements that block sales for a set period. Up to 20% of eligible insider shares unlock after Q2 earnings, expected between mid-July and September, with another 10% unlocking if SPCX holds 30% above the offer price for five of ten sessions. Five 7% tranches follow at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, with 28% more after Q3 earnings and full release at 180 days. The one true carve-out is a directed share program covering up to 5% of the IPO shares for individuals selected by executives, who reportedly sell only after the first earnings report.
