According to reports from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price rose 2.5% to try to reclaim the $84 area after losing this level on Wednesday night. The altcoin has been trading between the $76-$92 range since February, moving within the lower half of this range over the past two weeks. The recent recovery follows a 10% jump from last week's lows, reclaiming the $82 level and retesting major resistance levels. Despite this recent bounce, the token remains below key technical levels that put it at risk of moving to its next leg lower over the coming sessions.
As reported by crypto.news, Solana price has dropped below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart, which has historically been followed by significant bearish pressure since October 2025. The token has been trading within the $76 to $92 range since February this year, recently moving into the lower end of this range in the past two weeks. The daily chart shows the token has been stuck in its consolidation phase in the second step of the current cycle, hovering between $79 and $81 and resting below the $86 mark where the 50-day SMA is positioned. At the time of writing, the price has been rejected from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that a retest and breakdown from the key $76-$80 support area could be next.
According to crypto.news analysis, Solana price movement has been repeating a three-step cycle every time it prepares to transition to its next leg lower in the past six months. The pattern begins when Solana price reclaims the 50-day SMA, followed by a rapid fall back below the indicator while losing the support of previous highs. Following this, the token enters into a consolidation trap, moving sideways within a tight range before its final breakdown towards its next leg down begins. This pattern was previously observed in November 2025 and January 2026, when it dropped below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before the next major sell-off. Market observer Leviathan noted that Solana has retested the lower area of its local range seven times since February, and every bounce has gotten weaker after each retest.
As reported by crypto.news, assuming the pattern holds, the ongoing sideways movement should not be interpreted as a sign of stabilization but as the token coiling before initiating its next leg down. If Solana fails to reclaim the $86 50-day SMA level in the coming sessions, it risks a rapid decline towards $52, a level calculated by subtracting the average percentage drop observed during previous cycles from the current consolidation peak. Analyst Ali Martinez warns that this sideways movement is not 'stabilization' but the coiling of a new leg down. Crypto Lens analysis suggests an even more bearish outlook, pointing to a potential bearish flag pattern that could target the $45 zone if the current structure continues. The token has been on a downtrend since moving above the key resistance in mid-March when it surged to $97.
