Solana has extended its bearish run following Wednesday's broader crypto market sell-off, triggered by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. According to the latest reports, September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY, exceeding the 3.6% forecast and increasing concerns about interest rates remaining elevated. As a result, treasury yields climbed while the U.S. dollar strengthened, adding pressure to risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies. The macroeconomic pressure coincides with weakening activity across Solana's ecosystem, creating a challenging backdrop for the token's recovery.
The network's transaction volume has reportedly fallen to $20.25 million, while daily active addresses have also retreated to just 3.74 million addresses. These declines could indicate weakening participation as traders respond to the macroeconomic uncertainty. According to recent data, DeFi tokens operating in the ecosystem have also dropped significantly, with Jupiter [JUP] and Raydium [RAY] being the top losers, with each token's price dropping by 9.4% and 10.6%, respectively. A continued decline in active addresses and transaction activity would strengthen concerns about weakening ecosystem demand.
As reported by TradingView, the daily Bollinger Bands placed the lower boundary at $102.83, the middle line at $114.95, and the upper boundary at $127.07. SOL's recovery above the lower band followed an intraday move beneath it, with the token remaining about 7.6% below the middle band at $106.20. The daily MACD continued to show bearish momentum with the MACD line at −1.07 below its signal line at 0.95, and the histogram at −2.03. The 4-hour chart shows the 20-period simple moving average at $106.11, with the 50-period average at $109.21, 200-period average at $112.67, and 100-period average at $114.43 creating successive technical hurdles. The Chaikin Money Flow reading was −0.02, just below zero, having recovered from deeper negative readings during the recent decline but not moving into positive territory.
The Solana Foundation has confirmed that Alpenglow, scheduled for activation during epoch 1064 beginning around 15:00 UTC on October 21, will replace TowerBFT consensus mechanism used since 2020. The upgrade targets transaction finality of approximately 150 milliseconds, compared with the current 12.8 seconds, by implementing a new voting system called Votor that allows validators to exchange votes directly and combine approvals into certificates. According to the Foundation, Alpenglow will take over approximately 18 minutes after epoch 1064 begins, with a temporary period using TowerBFT for the first 5,000 slots. Validator operators must prepare using software built on Agave 4.3.0, with Firedancer and Frankendancer clients requiring temporary switching to other clients. The upgrade will also change validator expenses, replacing existing voting transaction costs of approximately 1 SOL per epoch with a 0.8 SOL Validator Admission Ticket fee.
Technical analysis shows SOL broke below the major upward trendline and retested it before continuing lower, with the natural target for sellers around the $97 level. Analyst Aman identified $97–$99 as a support zone after SOL broke an ascending trendline, with a conditional downside target of $75–$77 if that support fails. The token is now trading below both its 20-day and 50-day EMA at $103, with a drop past the $100 psychological level potentially amplifying the current bearish push. For a broader recovery, the chart-based sequence runs from holding the rebound above $102.83 toward reclaiming $109.21, then the $112.67–$114.95 resistance area. A move through those levels would bring the former $120–$124 range back into view, while failure to maintain $100 support would leave $97–$99 as the next nearby support test. The combination of macroeconomic pressure and weakening network indicators presents a challenging backdrop for SOL, with the impacts of the weakening on-chain and fundamentals already evident on the daily chart.
