According to reports from Polymarket, cryptocurrency-based prediction platform bettors now favor Democrats to sweep both chambers of Congress in November's midterm elections. The odds have experienced a dramatic shift from just 26% a year ago and 34% at the beginning of 2026, with current odds standing at 51% for a Democratic sweep. The House appears to be a decisive victory for Democrats, with odds at 89%, while the Senate remains closer at 51% for Democratic control. Elections are scheduled for November 3, with Republicans currently controlling both chambers of Congress.
As reported by Polymarket, the shift in political odds tracks President Trump's declining approval ratings, with some surveys showing support as low as 32% to 34%. A Financial Times and FocalData poll found that most Americans report their finances have worsened under Trump's administration, with a majority of independents agreeing. Additionally, a separate Reuters and Ipsos poll shows Democrats now edge out Republicans on the economy, with voters splitting 37% to 36% in favor of Democrats, ending nearly a decade of Republican advantage on economic issues. Surveys conducted in August found Americans now trust Democrats more than Republicans to manage the economy, marking a significant shift in public opinion.
According to the report, rising gas prices are significantly contributing to the political pressure on Trump's administration. The national average gas price hit a record $4.056 per gallon in August, breaking the previous high of $3.940 set in 2022. The conflict with Iran continues to keep energy markets volatile, with Trump defending the price spikes as necessary costs of pushing Iran toward denuclearization. Trump has also moved to court Venezuelan oil supply, meeting with industry executives this week to attempt cooling prices. This economic pressure comes amid climbing energy prices that have set new records and contributed to the shift in political sentiment.
As reported by Polymarket, elections are scheduled for November 3, with Republicans currently controlling both chambers of Congress. The question now centers on whether Republicans can reverse the current slide in political odds or whether the odds continue drifting toward a Democratic sweep. The 51% probability represents a significant shift in political prediction markets, reflecting the combination of declining Trump approval ratings and economic pressures affecting voter sentiment. The shift tracks Trump's sliding approval ratings as election day approaches, with Democrats gaining momentum across both legislative chambers.
