XRP's Binance Scarcity Index has dropped to -0.94, its lowest reading since January 2025, signaling that more tokens are now available for trading on the exchange. According to CryptoQuant data, this represents a sharp reversal from July when the same index hit a two-year high of 0.77. The index measures how scarce XRP is on Binance compared with its normal levels, with a rising or positive index typically being bullish due to reduced sell-side supply, while a falling or negative index indicates more potential supply that could be sold. XRP is currently trading at $1.50, down more than 1% over 24 hours, as the increased supply availability creates headwinds for price recovery. Despite this supply increase, XRP recently bounced near $1.47 after a roughly 9.7% pullback from its weekly high, though the token faces challenges in maintaining higher levels.
XRP continues to face massive selling pressure led by Binance traders, with the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showing an excessive short-selling volume. According to AMBCrypto reports, the CVD grew from -$2.27 billion to roughly -$2.70 billion between September 16th and 27th, representing an expansion of $430 million within that period. Binance traders' activity also contributed significantly, with exchange volume moving from -$1.0 billion to roughly -$1.2 billion during the same timeframe. Despite this bearish activity, XRP has returned roughly 5.00% in value over the past couple of days, demonstrating resilience against the selling pressure. However, the increased supply availability creates additional downside risk as more tokens become available for trading.
Spot investors have emerged as a major factor absorbing selling pressure in the perpetual market, according to CoinGlass data. In the past 24 hours, Spot netflow reached -$17.11 million, while the seven-day figure stood at -$60.33 million. This outflow pattern suggests investors are moving capital into private wallets for long-term holding, helping maintain price momentum against the selling volume. The continued Spot accumulation against perpetual market selling helps keep the price intact, as it absorbs the majority of selling pressure that comes from the perpetual market. However, the increased supply availability may limit the effectiveness of this accumulation in supporting prices.
Open interest has reportedly reached its highest level since August 2025, amplifying the impact of increased supply availability on price movements. According to recent reports, this surge in open interest can amplify either direction, making the next breakout more consequential and raising liquidation risk if prices slip. The combination of increased supply and elevated open interest creates a crowded setup that requires careful analysis of demand absorption capacity. A hold above nearby support levels becomes crucial for maintaining a recovery scenario, while a breakdown would put leveraged positions under significant pressure from both supply-side and derivatives-side factors.
XRP sits just below the $1.52 level that market commentary has identified as important for bullish momentum, with the token trading at $1.50 and facing immediate technical challenges. The $1.47 area represents the nearest cited support, while $1.55 serves as the first significant resistance. A sustained break above resistance could open a path toward $2, though this remains a conditional target. Analysts flag $1.55 as decisive, with the current setup offering three scenarios: a bull case where XRP holds $1.50 and clears $1.55 with follow-through, a base case of range-bound trading between roughly $1.47 and $1.55, and a bear case involving a decisive loss of $1.47 alongside continued exchange-side supply. The Binance scarcity index adds a supply-side headwind, making demand absorption capacity the critical factor for price direction.
