According to reports from Bloomberg, Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead has characterized the US Treasury's expanded bond buyback plan as a 'bluff that backfired'. Speaking on Bloomberg Crypto, Morehead argued that investors saw through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's move almost immediately. On August 19, Bessent doubled the Treasury's bond buybacks to ease borrowing costs, with the program allowing the government to repurchase its own debt to influence bond yields. The cap rose to at least $4 billion per operation, but Morehead noted this appeared tiny against the $2 trillion in bonds the Treasury must sell every year. As reported by BeInCrypto, Morehead explained that "it backfired because everyone could see they are off by three orders of magnitude" - highlighting the gap between the buyback program and the actual scale of Treasury debt obligations.
As reported by BeInCrypto, Bitcoin climbed 26% in August, marking its strongest month since November 2025 and representing the first net positive August since 2021. The cryptocurrency briefly topped $81,000 before trading near $77,258 at press time. Morehead tied Bitcoin's rally directly to the Treasury's bond buyback strategy, calling it a 'macro trade that benefits whenever governments keep expanding debt'. He pointed to Pantera's call that Bitcoin would peak at $117,542 on August 10, 2025, a forecast that held true. According to BeInCrypto, Morehead noted that "Bitcoin peaking on the exact day Pantera called years earlier means the current pullback fits the same script, according to Morehead. He said the pattern has held for the 13 years his fund has tracked it."
According to Bloomberg, Morehead's bullish debt thesis faced its clearest pushback yet when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a different tone at Jackson Hole. Warsh argued that stronger growth could lift rates and reduce the appeal of yield-free assets like bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin retreated after Warsh's speech, providing the most significant challenge to Morehead's debt expansion thesis. Morehead expects a new upswing to begin near the end of this year, followed by another two to three year run. As reported by BeInCrypto, Morehead argued that "the same four-year cycle model now points to another leg higher once this pullback ends" - suggesting the current correction follows established patterns in Bitcoin's performance.
