Ondo [ONDO] has experienced a 24% decline from $0.427 to $0.325, representing a significant deterioration from the previous week's performance. The latest price action follows a 5.44% weekly decline and intensifies concerns about the token's supply dynamics. A team-linked wallet transferred 4.019 million ONDO worth approximately $1.4 million to Coinbase during the latest distribution, with the wallet having originally received 20 million ONDO directly from the team and having already transferred 12 million ONDO through three separate 4 million token deposits. This represents 60% of the original allocation moving toward exchanges, creating continued supply pressure as the token approaches critical support levels.
Trading activity has declined significantly as ONDO broke out of a bullish triangle pattern and failed to sustain the momentum. The 90-day Spot Taker CVD remains seller-dominant, indicating more aggressive selling than market buying, with taker sellers controlling immediate execution across the observed spot market. The 1-day timeframe's swing structure remains bearish, with the breakout from the triangle pattern not accompanied by a surge in buying volume, resulting in the current price drawdown. The cumulative long leverage below $0.322, down to $0.302, significantly outweighs cumulative short leverage overhead, with a cluster of high-leverage short liquidations around $0.342. Traders can maintain long-term bearish expectations until ONDO closes a daily trading session above the $0.47 swing high.
ONDO has approached the critical $0.30 support level as selling pressure strengthened during the latest decline. The token had descended toward $0.3344, bringing the $0.3101 support increasingly closer after sellers rejected recovery below the $0.4279 resistance. On the daily chart timeframe, ONDO had lost the $0.3778 level and was approaching the lower boundary of its broader range. Parabolic SAR stood near $0.3788, placing its dots above price throughout the latest downswing, maintaining a bearish directional structure after ONDO surrendered $0.3778. The MACD had moved below its signal line as the negative histogram expanded during the decline, with selling pressure strengthening as price approached the lower boundary.
Ondo Finance announced they submitted a no-action request to the SEC regarding tokenized securities representation on Ethereum Mainnet. In limited circumstances, relevant securities entitlements would be represented in tokenized form and held by onchain custodian BitGo to facilitate recordkeeping, though the SEC has not yet responded to the request. The regulatory development comes as ONDO faces significant technical challenges, with the cumulative long leverage below $0.322, down to $0.302 significantly outweighing short leverage overhead. Short-term traders can expect ONDO to fall toward $0.30 before any potential bounce, with price recovery dependent on incoming capital flows and increased buying pressure.
