MicroStrategy stock (MSTR) has bounced about 29% off its late-June low, even shrugging off news that the company sold Bitcoin. The stock recovered from approximately $82 by late June to current levels, with the rebound being about four times the size of Bitcoin's 7% recovery. According to recent reports, the stock even held firm after Strategy confirmed it sold roughly 3,588 Bitcoin, demonstrating resilience despite the significant Bitcoin holdings reduction. However, the buying momentum is thinning out, with trading volume falling steadily since June 29, indicating fewer investors are chasing the move higher.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has renewed speculation about the company's next Bitcoin transaction with his July 12 orange-dot post, writing "Orange dots tell only part of the story." The familiar acquisition chart left the market guessing whether Strategy had bought, sold, or taken no action during the latest reporting period. As reported by Crypto.news, the post leaves two possible readings: Strategy may have resumed accumulation, or Saylor may be pointing to a wider capital plan that now includes selective sales. The company has not confirmed any transaction for the week ending July 12, with its public tracker still showing 843,775 BTC as the latest reported balance.
MicroStrategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor revealed the company's Bitcoin Breakeven ARR metric on Tuesday, July 7, highlighting that Bitcoin only needs 3.3% yearly growth to fund preferred dividends indefinitely. According to reports from MicroStrategy, the metric divides annual preferred dividend obligations, now roughly $1.76 billion by company figures, by the value of the corporate Bitcoin reserve. Saylor posted a chart on X showing 31 years of dividend coverage of Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (NASDAQ:STRC) at a 0% annualized rate of return, then pegged the breakeven at 3.3%, meaning that any long-term growth in Bitcoin above 3.3% would produce capital gains sufficient to fund the dividends infinitely. However, Peter Schiff has countered that the math assumes the dividend obligation doesn't increase over time, which it has done and will likely continue to do. The critique directly challenges Strategy's own disclosures, noting that STRC's variable rate has climbed toward 11.5% and the company has layered four additional preferred instruments onto its capital structure since STRC launched.
The stock's performance shows a significant 75% decline over the past year, nearly double Bitcoin's 41% drop, indicating a fundamental decoupling from its underlying asset. As reported by market analysts, MSTR's 30-day return correlation has slipped to about 0.30, showing investors no longer pay a premium for MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. This decoupling matters because it shows investors no longer view the stock as a direct Bitcoin play, which is why the stock keeps falling faster than the coin it holds. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) sits near -0.23, indicating that large investors are still pulling money out, though it has climbed since late June, suggesting outflows are slowing. Crypto.news described the July disposal as the end of Strategy's simple "never sell" era, noting the company now treats Bitcoin as part of a larger capital structure that includes preferred shares, dividends, debt, cash reserves, and possible buybacks.
From a technical perspective, MSTR closed near $94.64 after forming lower highs and lower lows since its July 2025 peak near $450. The stock remains below the $126.55 area, which now acts as resistance, with its relative strength index sitting near 30.5, showing strong negative momentum and near-oversold conditions. The MACD line remains below its signal line and both sit under zero, keeping the broader setup bearish. Immediate support lies around $90 to $95, with a break below that area weakening the structure further. Recovery would require a move above $125 to $130, followed by stronger momentum. The key resistance level is $104.27, which matches the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is exactly where the Bitcoin sale news stalled the rally.
