MicroStrategy stock has bounced approximately 29% off its late-June low, even managing to hold firm after the company confirmed selling 3,588 Bitcoin worth roughly $216 million to fund STRC dividends. However, the recovery is showing signs of weakness as trading volume has fallen steadily since June 29, indicating that fewer investors are chasing the move higher. According to latest market data, MSTR has fallen about 75% over the past year, nearly double Bitcoin's 41% drop, with the stock's 30-day return correlation with Bitcoin slipping to about 0.30. This decoupling from Bitcoin suggests investors no longer pay a premium for MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, making the current rebound particularly fragile.
Cantor Fitzgerald has emerged as a key supporter of MicroStrategy's preferred stock recovery, with analysts led by Ramsey El-Assal expressing confidence in management's ability to stabilize the balance sheet and revive capital raising. According to the latest Cantor report, STRC has recovered to $87.79 in early Monday trading, representing a significant improvement from its record low of approximately $75 in late June. The bank argues that bringing STRC back to par is management's top priority and the key to restarting Strategy's bitcoin acquisition engine, with management likely to test the market until the preferred trades at par. As Strategy announced the sale of $216 million of bitcoin with cash proceeds to fund STRC dividends, Cantor expects the company to keep increasing cash reserves backing STRC dividends until the preferred trades back at par, calling the recent increase from roughly 10 to 18 months of dividend coverage the first step in that process.
Despite the stock's recent bounce, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) sits near -0.23, indicating that large investors are still pulling money out of the stock. However, options traders have turned hopeful, with the put-call ratio falling from 1.30 in late June to 0.71, suggesting traders are buying far more calls than puts. This optimism could be a trap if volume and flows do not confirm it, as Wall Street analysts have trimmed price targets in early July even while maintaining buy ratings. The $104.27 level represents the first wall on the upside, matching the 0.382 Fibonacci level and exactly where Bitcoin sale news stalled the rally. A clean break above this level would weaken the bearish setup, while $94.41 serves as the first floor, with a drop below $84.55 potentially breaking the pattern.
As MicroStrategy continues to navigate market pressures from its Bitcoin sales policy, the company is exploring innovative approaches to generate liquidity from its 847,363 BTC holdings without reducing its investment thesis. According to fresh research from Galaxy Digital, the company could earn recurring income through conservative lending or options-based strategies instead of selling Bitcoin, preserving its long-term investment while improving cash flow. This development comes as the company faces criticism from JPMorgan analysts who characterized Strategy's Bitcoin sales mechanism as 'avoidable' risk for the broader cryptocurrency market, with the bank estimating that the company's current reserve of approximately $2.55 billion covers only about 17 months of obligations — well below the 24 to 36 months needed for market confidence. The latest $216 million Bitcoin sale demonstrates the company's continued flexibility in managing its treasury while maintaining its core Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
As of the latest data, MicroStrategy maintains its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 847,363 BTC worth approximately $52.9 billion at current prices. According to the latest SEC filing, SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC valued at $1.17 billion, while Tesla holds 11,509 BTC worth about $718.5 million. Bitcoin was trading at $61,800 as of early Monday trading, with Strategy announcing the sale of $216 million of bitcoin to fund STRC dividends. CryptoQuant analysts estimated Strategy's unrealized losses on Bitcoin purchased between 2024 and 2026 at approximately $10.6 billion as of late June. The company has remained a net accumulator despite selling 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 at an average price of $77,135 per coin, subsequently purchasing 1,550 BTC in early June and an additional 520 BTC by late June, bringing total holdings to 847,363 BTC. However, the company's mNAV ratio has fallen below 1.0x, disrupting the accretion flywheel that previously made capital raising feasible.
