Bitcoin has flipped into a new bull market regime after its Bull Score surged from 30 to 80 in a single week, marking the fastest reversal in a year according to CryptoQuant. The cryptocurrency climbed 24% from approximately $58,000 to the $78,000–$80,000 zone, nearing a breakout toward $83,681 and reaching its highest level since May 15, 2026. At press time, BTC traded near $79,054 after peaking at $81,343 on August 25, according to latest market data. However, one hurdle remains before the shift becomes official - Bitcoin must recapture its 365-day moving average around $83,000 to validate the regime shift. CryptoQuant's Bull Score, a composite of 10 on-chain and market metrics, now reads its most bullish since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000, with eight of the 10 inputs currently flashing green. The rapid increase indicates that several parts of the market improved together rather than price rising on one isolated signal.
Bitcoin remains above every major moving average displayed on the daily chart, with the 20-day simple moving average at $68,284, followed by the 200-day SMA at $69,166, the 50-day at $65,815, and the 100-day at $66,185. The 4-hour chart shows the average directional index at 56.52, far above the 25 threshold generally associated with an established trend, while Bull Bear Power remained positive at 884 but had fallen sharply from rally highs. However, the ADX has started easing after reaching higher readings during the initial breakout, suggesting that upward momentum is no longer accelerating at the same rate. The 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart sits at ₹72,715 and continues to act as dynamic support on recent pullbacks. Ted Pillows identified bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, with $72,000–$74,000 identified as a possible correction area following the sharp rally. The first important downside zone sits between $77,500 and $78,000, with a confirmed break below that area exposing $76,500–$77,000, followed by $75,700–$76,000.
Holder profitability has recovered significantly, supporting the bullish transition across both recent and established Bitcoin holders. Short-term holder profitability changed from a loss of around 7% to a profit greater than 11%, reducing selling pressure from recent buyers. This improvement extends beyond the immediate recovery, with Bitcoin's bull transition supported by other metrics including CryptoQuant's Bull Score index jumping from 30 to 80 over a single week. The 50-point gain represents an improved environment in terms of support for the bulls, as the recovery has removed much of the financial stress behind capitulation. Most notably, stronger spot demand coincided with a surge in futures activity, suggesting that participation was growing alongside price rather than relying solely on leverage. Historically, similar transitions appeared in 2019 and March 2023, though both periods still experienced 15%–25% corrections during broader advances.
Bitcoin now faces the $83,000–$83.8K zone as the key cost-basis test for confirming the bull shift. Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that the $83,300 band holds roughly 549,200 BTC with the $84,569 bucket covering nearly 5% of supply. Those owners sit near break even, so many may sell into strength, but seven days of Bitcoin ETF inflows would have to absorb them. The $82,045 bucket holds 83,800 BTC, or 0.42% of supply, making the initial climb easier before hitting the main resistance. A 12-hour close above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $80,070 breaks the flag pattern, while clearing $81,343 and the 0.618 level at $81,449 confirms a fresh high. Above that, $82,430 opens the way to $83,681, the extension landing inside the 5% supply wall highlighted earlier. Underneath, the 100-period Exponential Moving Average at $67,367 is closing on the 200-period EMA at $67,666, with that crossover favoring buyers. A drop under $77,837 weakens the structure, and $75,545 damages it badly.
Two macro catalysts drove the recent move: The US Treasury announced it will double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9, while markets also rallied after Trump's Bitcoin purchase hint suggested Washington may buy BTC directly. Demand data supports the bullish shift, with apparent spot demand growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and futures demand expanding together for the first time since early October 2025. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that "Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market," but emphasized that "Bitcoin's price still has to cross above its 365-day MA ($83K today) for the bull market to be 'officially' confirmed." U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided significant institutional demand, with the funds recording approximately $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week ending August 21, their strongest weekly intake since October 2025 and their fifth consecutive positive session. Fresh ETF flows continued after the weekly streak, with spot ETFs attracting $337.56 million on August 24, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust with $208.9 million and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund with $104.6 million.
