Galaxy Research has revealed significant challenges in retail prediction market participation, finding that 69.2% of retail Polymarket accounts finished below break-even across 2.9 million wallets. According to the study, these traders collectively lost $338.9 million, with the median account down approximately $3. The analysis, conducted using Polymarket's full on-chain settlement record curated by oracle network Stork, covers only the international platform that operates separately from the US app. Galaxy used 50 orders per active day as its cutoff for likely automated accounts, removing 125,429 accounts that placed 80.8% of all orders and finished $246.8 million ahead. Among remaining retail wallets, the bottom 1% lost at least $4,804, with losing performance pushing 15.2% of accounts away within 30 days of losses, compared to 6.1% after wins.
Polymarket has officially named Lisa Mantil as its Head of Institutional Growth, marking a significant milestone in the prediction market platform's expansion strategy. According to the company's official announcement, Mantil will lead the company's work with investment managers, trading firms, corporates and banks to build the products, infrastructure and liquidity they need to take part in prediction markets at scale. The appointment comes after nearly three decades at Goldman Sachs, where she was named Partner in 2018 and most recently built and led the firm's ETF Accelerator, a platform that helped institutions bring new investment products to market. As reported by CoinDesk, Mantil's most recent role was as a partner at Goldman Sachs and global head of the firm's ETF Accelerator, an internal platform that helps clients launch investment products.
Mantil's appointment represents a strategic move to capitalize on prediction markets' unique value proposition for institutional investors. As reported in the company announcement, prediction markets give institutions something they haven't had before: a direct way to price and hedge real-world events. Elections, policy decisions, rate moves, regulatory rulings and geopolitical outcomes affect nearly every portfolio, but until now, institutions have largely relied on proxies and correlated assets, with no guarantee those instruments will move in line with the risk they are intended to hedge. The hire follows the official May debut of Polymarket's U.S. exchange and a wave of staffing additions across the company's international and domestic operations. Prediction markets—whose trading volume has surged over the past year, largely driven by retail traders interested in sports-related products—are increasingly seeking to attract institutional liquidity to their platforms.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan emphasized Mantil's exceptional qualifications for the role, stating that her experience and relationships across the institutional world are world class. According to the company release, Mantil is the right person to lead the latest expansion of their business. Mantil stated that the opportunity to join Polymarket is a rare chance to help shape an exploding asset class at an inflection point in its development, adding that she's spent her career guiding institutions as they adopt new products and enter new markets. The partnership was reportedly facilitated by Goldman CEO David Solomon, who introduced the two executives. Mantil stated in the announcement: "Joining Polymarket and helping shape this asset class, which is at a pivotal moment of rapid growth, is a unique opportunity. Throughout my career, I have guided institutions in adopting new products and entering new markets, and I look forward to bringing this experience to Polymarket to help us build our institutional business and expand the role of prediction markets in investment and risk management strategies."
Mantil's appointment follows another senior finance hire this month, with Polymarket naming Warren Jenson as its first chief financial officer on September 10. Jenson previously held the same position at Amazon, Electronic Arts, Delta Air Lines, NBC and Nielsen, and is overseeing Polymarket's finance organization, capital strategy and long-term financial planning as the company expands its US operations. The company has also recruited heavily outside traditional finance, including hiring Ari Borod as president of sports business development in February, who previously worked at Fanatics during its expansion into sports betting and online casino gaming. This hiring pattern reflects how prediction markets are expanding beyond their startup roots, bringing customer acquisition expertise and high-value player experience into the company. Polymarket has been growing its team since officially launching its U.S. exchange in May, with the company conducting a series of new hires for both its international and U.S. platforms in August.
Institutional adoption of prediction markets is still in its early stages, with some participants holding back as platforms engage in regulatory disputes with states over who has the authority to regulate their sports-related event contracts. However, this has not stopped these platforms from targeting large traders. Competitor Kalshi became the first exchange to complete a block trade in April, with block trades being large, privately negotiated transactions designed to avoid price volatility and common on Wall Street. Polymarket's international platform, which operates on the Polygon blockchain and is not subject to U.S. regulation, completed its first block trade the following month. Brokers who have worked with early institutional participants told CNBC that Polymarket has discussed executing large trades on its U.S. exchange and is nearing the ability to do so, though Polymarket declined to comment on the progress of its U.S.-based platform's block trades. Galaxy noted that Polymarket's recent marketing push centers on its separate US exchange, with the company paying LeBron James $15 million annually to promote football markets, targeting the sports-focused traders who fared worst in its international data.
