Global money supply across the four largest economies reached a record $103.66 trillion in August, according to data from MacroMicro. The figure tracks M2 across the US, Euro area, China, and Japan in dollar terms, measuring cash, bank deposits, and other easily accessible savings. Measured in dollars, the total grew roughly 8% year-over-year, though at fixed exchange rates, growth sits near 4.5%, about a third of its 2021 peak. A softer dollar explains much of the headline growth, as reported by MacroMicro. The milestone represents the 10th straight monthly increase, with Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC collectively adding $1 trillion in August alone.
Individual country data reveals mixed performance across major economies. US M2 reached a record $23.34 trillion in August, up 5.7% annually, according to Fed data. Meanwhile, China's M2 rose 7.5%, while the euro area M3 grew 3.5%, as reported by the ECB. Japan's M2 slipped slightly in August. Notably, the Fed is not printing money, with its balance sheet growing only about $141 billion over the past year, as noted by MacroMicro.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed the pace of money growth rather than its absolute level, according to a 2024 study commissioned by macro analyst Lyn Alden. The study found that BTC tracked global M2's direction in 83% of 12-month periods, with no other asset tested scoring higher. Since late 2025, however, M2 growth has cooled, which fits the recent weakness in Bitcoin better than the record total. Bitcoin currently trades near $84,650, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours, but remains 33% below its October peak, as reported by TheStreet. The 2017, 2021, and 2025 peaks all landed near highs in M2 growth, while negative growth in late 2022 matched the cycle bottom.
The Federal Reserve raised rates to a 3.75% to 4% range on September 16, marking its first hike since 2023. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation held at 3.4% as oil climbed near $100. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.225%, the highest since 2007, as reported by TheStreet. Higher yields raise the bar for assets that pay no income, contributing to gold's decline to $4,163, nearly 26% below its January high. In contrast, stocks have held firm, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,743 on Friday, lifted by tech optimism. The Fed's rate hike and elevated Treasury yields are pressuring non-yielding assets like crypto and gold, with limited near-term upside for risk assets.
