Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the chamber would not vote on the CLARITY Act before lawmakers left Washington, ending efforts to advance the crypto market structure bill before the August recess. Thune filed cloture on spending legislation, nominations and a college sports bill but not the CLARITY Act, following several days without a cloture filing, the procedural step needed to limit debate and move toward a floor vote. The announcement came as prediction markets had already priced in the delay, with Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 falling from above 70% earlier in the year to around 17% as the recess approached. The filing window runs from Friday night through Monday morning when the Senate's recess formally begins, with the procedural step starting the countdown to a floor vote and queuing the bill for action soon after the Senate returns on September 11.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expects crypto markets to "wobble for a minute" as traders price in the setback, with Polymarket odds of passage potentially falling into the teens. "If the Polymarket odds break solidly lower into the teens at least so we can put the uncertainty behind us," Hougan wrote, suggesting another drop could bring a final repricing of the legislative outlook. Crypto prices showed no immediate broad sell-off following the delay, with Bitcoin remaining above $64,400, Ethereum holding above $1,900 and XRP trading near $1.05. The delay places the measure closer to federal spending fights and the 2026 midterm campaign, narrowing the available legislative window and creating a more compressed timeline for passage.
If the crypto industry's Digital Asset Market Clarity Act fizzles in the U.S. Senate, the result may not be fatal, but it's a heavy blow that doesn't herald an end of hope for U.S. crypto policy. The U.S. financial regulators are already at work trying to institute workable crypto policies, though chances are slim they'll get the backing of a tailor-made law this year. The crypto-friendly SEC and CFTC are continuing to hatch position statements and direct their existing authorities toward granting crypto businesses the powers they need — for now. The SEC has been holding on to a major policy effort to clear a route for tokenized securities, conceived as a limited sandbox for an idea that could revolutionize the methods and speed in which securities change hands in the U.S. The agency has taken many months longer than it had first signaled, though close observers expect the agency will unleash it in the coming weeks. It's also poised to propose its 'regulation crypto' rule that's expected to ease the path for crypto developers, allowing fundraising and relaxed oversight for emerging projects.
Industry friction has added to the uncertainty as Coinbase withdrew its support over provisions that could limit stablecoin rewards and competition, with the primary report indicating the dispute contributed to a postponed Senate Banking Committee markup. Seven Democratic senators rejected the Republican draft on July 22, saying provisions on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity needed strengthening. The group included Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego, the two Democrats who had joined Republicans to advance the legislation through the Senate Banking Committee. That opposition matters because Senate leadership needs 60 votes to invoke cloture and overcome a filibuster, with Republicans requiring Democratic support to advance the bill. Democrats also declined to approve a time agreement that would have accelerated remaining Senate business before recess, making it harder to fit the CLARITY Act onto the floor schedule.
Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 collapsed from a February peak of 82 percent to 16 percent after Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the chamber lacks time for debate, amendments, and a 60-vote cloture threshold. The 82 to 16 percent decline is the steepest odds collapse for any major crypto regulatory contract on Polymarket, exceeding the drop in GENIUS Act passage odds during the 2025 stablecoin negotiations and approaching the speed of the 2024 Bitcoin ETF approval contract's final week repricing. Kalshi estimated that the bill had a 17% chance of becoming law by year-end, with JPMorgan noting that level was below what institutional investors typically require for new mandates. Nearly five million dollars in total volume has traded on the main contract, making it one of the most liquid regulatory prediction markets in crypto history and an increasingly accurate proxy for legislative sentiment. A legislative staffer told CoinDesk that the bill 'would easily have a chance at passage in September' if the outstanding issues are resolved, but the conditional is doing all the work, with the outstanding issues being the ethics provision, illicit finance safeguards, Agriculture Committee provisions on commodity oversight, and stablecoin yield treatment.
