A Wall Street Journal investigation has exposed a significant scandal at Polymarket, revealing the platform allegedly staged fake winning bets on copycat websites to attract US users. According to the WSJ report, Polymarket paid mostly college-age creators to stage fake winning bets on copycat versions of its website, with none of the roughly $1.9 million in bets shown across 1,105 videos being real. The fake campaign specifically targeted American users, who can still access the offshore site through a VPN, with creators earning approximately $2,000 to $3,000 a month and being told not to disclose the payments. A hired marketing firm then pushed these clips past 140 million views, creating a viral growth campaign that contradicts Polymarket's core pitch of settling every trade on a public blockchain that anyone can audit. The Journal reviewed 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators between December 2025 and mid-May and found that about 70% featured wagers that were not real, with creators displaying nearly $900,000 in winnings that did not exist across 118 videos reviewed.
Prediction market traders are experiencing unprecedented returns during the 2026 World Cup, with one trader achieving a remarkable $9.24 million daily profit by correctly predicting all four match outcomes. According to reports from Lookonchain, this trader staked $7.03 million on Iran not beating New Zealand, which drew 2-2, returning $7.34 million on that single bet alone. The trader maintained a perfect 100% win rate across all four bets placed in a single day. Lookonchain has now identified three additional wallets - mintblade, GRIMDRIP, and endlessFate - that together made more than $24 million from World Cup markets, with mintblade alone making $9.24 million after winning five out of five bets.
The World Cup has transformed prediction market platforms into high-stakes betting arenas, with traders wagering seven-figure sums on individual matches. As reported by multiple sources, Polymarket alone has seen the outright winner market draw more than $2.5 billion in volume since the tournament began. Lookonchain analysis reveals concerning patterns in large-scale trading activity, with all three winning wallets later sending funds to Binance through the same deposit address 0xB08B...317D, suggesting potential coordination or shared control. The tracker described this activity as tied to a 'suspected insider', though the claim remains based on wallet links and public trading data, with Polymarket and Binance not publicly confirming the findings. The Journal reports that more than 50 real Polymarket users reportedly placed the same wager in January that was featured in promotional videos, with these positions generating more than $166,000 in losses if placed in live markets.
Several traders have achieved significant returns despite the high-risk nature of prediction markets, with Lookonchain tracking substantial positions across multiple wallets. GRIMDRIP allegedly made $7.6 million after winning two out of two bets, while endlessFate made $7.41 million after winning six out of nine bets. The tracker also documented large positions including weatherman12 putting $1.81 million on Argentina not winning and Algeria covering a spread, and LEEEROYJENKINS reportedly making $5.2 million from Türkiye not winning against Australia. However, substantial losses have also occurred, with one trader losing approximately $1.2 million on Argentina not beating Algeria, which resulted in a $3.43 million payout to Argentina. On Kalshi, another user lost $391,536 on the same outcome, while a separate bettor put $373,407 on Algeria not to win, which paid out $416,184.
The World Cup betting landscape has undergone significant changes since the tournament began, with France now leading the Polymarket winner market at 18% while Spain trails at 13% and Argentina holds 11%. According to Kalshi data, France leads at 18.7%, Spain follows at 13.3%, and Portugal sits at 10.9%. These shifts represent France's overtaking of Spain as the tournament favorite, marking a notable change in market sentiment during the early stages of the competition. The case adds fresh pressure on prediction markets already facing scrutiny, with Congress moving to ban lawmakers from trading on prediction markets citing insider-trading risks. Lookonchain previously reported unusual betting tied to a ZachXBT insider-trading probe, highlighting ongoing concerns about whether some traders have access to better information through pseudonymous wallets. The Journal reports that streamer Adin Ross has a multimillion-dollar partnership with Polymarket, with the company paying content creators to promote at least 19 videos discussing how traders could profit from inside information.
