Ethereum faces its biggest technical test since April 2025 as the cryptocurrency's RSI has returned above 65, a level that has historically triggered local tops within two to three days. Since topping in August 2025, ETH has repeatedly formed local tops whenever the daily RSI moves above this threshold, making the current reading a crucial inflection point. According to AMBCrypto, if ETH tops out again, it would confirm the bearish structure remains intact, but if the price continues to consolidate, it would mark the first break in this pattern since April 2025, potentially signaling Ethereum's first bullish shift. The RSI back above 65 increases the risk of profit-taking, while BTC.D continues to consolidate around 58%, creating a challenging environment for sustained momentum.
Ethereum has broken above $1,928 resistance after surging 5.2% in the last 24 hours, marking a decisive breakout from a descending trendline that had capped the cryptocurrency since its all-time high. The breakout comes as futures open interest spiked to $19.8 billion on July 14, reaching the highest reading since June 3 when a market-wide deleveraging event reset positioning. As per Glassnode data, this represents a sharp recovery from the $15.5 billion low in late June, indicating traders are returning to ETH derivatives with conviction. The metric had collapsed to approximately $15.5 billion in late June, making the current surge a significant development in market structure. According to CryptoQuant, nearly $30 million in ETH future positions were liquidated on Binance within a single hour as ETH broke above $1,900, demonstrating the strength of the move.
Ethereum has surged nearly 5% on July 15 after June's Consumer Price Index came in below expectations, easing concerns that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh would resume aggressive rate hikes. The second-largest cryptocurrency broke above $1,850 resistance after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data triggered a sharp short squeeze, putting the $2,000 level back into focus for traders. Risk assets rallied across global markets, with tech stocks advancing alongside cryptocurrencies as investors priced in a more accommodative policy outlook. Since the CPI release, ETH has rallied 10%+, making it the best-performing asset among the top 10 over the past week, as reported by AMBCrypto. Derivatives markets amplified the move, with CoinGlass liquidation data showing a dense cluster of leveraged short positions between $1,800 and $1,850 was wiped out as Ethereum broke through resistance. However, the latest market data shows Ethereum has pulled back by 0.5% since midnight, indicating some profit-taking after the initial surge.
The macro-driven rebound has drawn attention back to Ethereum, yet institutional positioning had already started shifting before the latest rally. Over the past two weeks, exchange withdrawals culminated in a 90,024 ETH net outflow on 13 July, with average seven-day net flows remaining negative at roughly 5,000–15,000 ETH per day. As a result of the consistent movement of assets off exchanges, the steady migration reduced Exchange Reserves to approximately 15.3 million ETH, with over 33% of the circulating supply now held off exchanges through staking, DeFi, and institutional custody. The metrics show that institutions are buying up liquid supply rather than speculative enthusiasm, with retail participation still low, reducing potential for immediate sell-offs due to institutions taking supply off the open market. This further reinforces Ethereum's long-term structural position within the market.
2.6 million ETH has been queued for staking over the next 45 days, representing an additional 6.5% jump in locked supply against an existing staking base of 40 million ETH. According to AMBCrypto, if this pace continues, total staked ETH would climb to 42.6 million in the near-term. Notably, this demand is building even as Ethereum's staking APR has dropped back to 2.6%, its lowest level since early Q1. BitMine's recent report highlights this trend, generating $45.7 million in ETH staking revenue for the three months ended May 31, 2026, while staking approximately 4.9 million ETH. The company continues to generate recurring income even with staking yields at just 2.6%, reinforcing Ethereum's long-term investment case. Institutional positioning tells a different story, with spot ETH ETFs attracting more than $200 million in net inflow so far this month, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $11.27 million, creating a flow divergence of more than $211 million in Ethereum's favor.
Ethereum's daily chart shows the recovery has developed from a series of rounded-bottom formations that formed after June's selloff to nearly $1,500. The cryptocurrency has now completed a breakout above the neckline near $1,850, a level that capped several recovery attempts over recent weeks. The measured move from the pattern projects a target close to $2,190, matching a major resistance zone from earlier this year. Monday's 6.5% green candle broke above a descending trendline in place since the all-time high, a line that had rejected the ETH price five times before this breakout. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the shift in momentum, breaking out of its own descending trendline drawn from July 2025 and now sitting just below 65. The Aroon Up indicator stands above 92 while Aroon Down has dropped to zero, suggesting bulls retain control of the prevailing trend. Volume has been declining during the recovery, so the breakout lacks confirmation from participation, making it crucial for volume to arrive to validate the move.
