According to Glassnode data, Ethereum's 3x profit supply has fallen to just 11% of circulating supply, marking the lowest level since February 2017. This represents a dramatic decline from previous cycles when more than half of the network's supply sat on gains exceeding 300% during the 2017-18 and 2020-21 bull markets. The current reading suggests far fewer Ethereum holders accumulated outsized profits compared to earlier cycles, leaving a larger share of investors much closer to their entry prices during the latest downturn. Ethereum currently trades near $1,685 after rebounding from recent lows around $1,505, but remains one of the worst-performing major cryptocurrencies this year as investors continue reducing exposure to risk assets.
As reported by CoinDesk, the structural underperformance stems from significant differences in ETF adoption between the two cryptocurrencies. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted tens of billions of dollars in institutional flows since their January 2024 launch, creating a steady source of demand that Ethereum lacks. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded roughly $885 million in net outflows over the past month, extending a multi-week trend of institutional capital leaving Ethereum investment products. Bitcoin ETFs hold more than $90 billion in total net assets compared to Ethereum's $12 billion, with Bitcoin's ETF complex absorbing approximately $519 million in outflows during the June 2026 selloff while Ethereum products lost around $90 million. Ethereum ETFs have logged extended runs of consecutive net outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA serving as the primary outflow vehicle, representing a larger share of a smaller, more fragile buyer base.
Ethereum faces key resistance near $1,700 as price action places the asset at an important technical level. The daily chart shows ETH trading beneath a descending trendline that has capped rallies since April, with ETH attempting to reclaim resistance around $1,714. A breakout above that level could open the door toward $1,874 and $1,987, while a rejection from current levels could reinforce the bearish flag structure and bring the $1,505 support area back into focus. CoinGlass liquidation data shows a large cluster of short liquidations between $1,710 and $1,730, while significant long liquidation pools remain concentrated around $1,600, $1,580, and $1,540. Daily RSI has recovered from oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50 mark, while MACD continues to trade below its signal line despite showing early signs of stabilization.
According to crypto analyst Ardi, previous Ethereum bear markets reached their final lows only after weekly RSI broke below the 30 level and remained there for several weeks. The current cycle differs from previous ones because Ethereum never experienced the kind of parabolic breakout that characterized earlier bull markets, spending an unusually long period trading in the lower half of its RSI range. Historical bottom signals have not appeared yet, with the observation that the asset may not require the same type of capitulation event seen in prior bear cycles. Macro conditions have complicated the outlook, with stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and strengthening the dollar. Bitcoin's break below $60,000 triggered a wave of liquidations across crypto markets that pushed Ethereum toward levels last seen in early 2023.
As reported by CoinDesk, Ethereum treasury companies are emerging as a potential structural demand source. BitMine Immersion Technologies has accumulated around 5.39 million ETH, roughly 4.47% of the entire supply, and launched an institutional staking platform. The Glamsterdam upgrade, targeting 2026, is expected to raise the network's gas limit substantially by up to 3.3 times, improving throughput and efficiency. These developments represent attempts to manufacture the institutional bid that Bitcoin's ETFs provided, though their impact has not yet shown up in price performance. Three key indicators would signal a potential reversal in Ethereum's underperformance: the ETH/BTC ratio must sustain a turn upward, holding above recent levels and reclaiming its moving averages, Ethereum ETF flows must turn from sustained outflows to consistent inflows, and treasury accumulation pace must continue through the downturn.
