Ethereum (ETH) is on course to do something it has never done before - heading toward three consecutive red quarters for the first time in its history. According to Coinglass data, ETH has fallen 28.28% in Q4 2025 and 29.26% in Q1 2026, with the current quarter showing a 18.4% decline. With about two weeks remaining before the quarter closes, ETH still has time to break this unprecedented pattern. The price slump has pushed ETH near multi-year lows and sentiment into deep fear, with analysts noting it is on track for its 2nd worst first half of the year after 2022. So far in 2026, ETH has posted Q1 and Q2 ROIs of -20% and -18.5% respectively, putting the altcoin down nearly 40% from its yearly open of $2,966, erasing much of the progress made over the past year.
Broader risk markets have strengthened following reports of a US-Iran peace agreement, lifting the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 2% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum has outperformed slightly, gaining 2.6% over the same period to trade above $1,700. Historical trends offer additional support for the bullish case, as ETH has recorded a positive quarter immediately after every previous instance of back-to-back quarterly losses. In 2022, Ethereum declined for two consecutive quarters before rebounding 24% in the following quarter, with similar recoveries following consecutive red quarters in 2019 and 2020. The closest comparison to the current situation came during the 2022 cycle, when ETH posted Q1 and Q2 returns of -10.75% and -67.37% respectively.
Ethereum's supply dynamics hint at divergence from the 2022 cycle, with on-chain signals showing resilience despite price weakness. Exchange reserves during the 2022 Q1-Q2 period stayed elevated at around 30 million, while this cycle has seen reserves decline from 16.8 million to 14.6 million, suggesting ongoing accumulation. Further supporting this trend, total ETH staked has climbed from 35.5 million to a record 39.5 million this year, pushing the percentage of total ETH staked to a record 32.45%. This divergence from the 2022 cycle separates the current setup, as holding above $1.5k becomes critical to avoid deeper capitulation. The tighter circulating supply despite recent price weakness indicates that long-term holders continue to accumulate rather than distribute, strengthening Ethereum's ability to hold key support zones.
While market sentiment suggests investors remain skeptical about ETH's ability to defend current levels, on-chain trends indicate potential resilience and a possible Q3 rebound. The current setup contrasts with the 2022 cycle where ETH drew down nearly 80% across Q1 and Q2, making the current 40% pullback more manageable. Historical trends suggest that after two straight red quarters, ETH has often seen a strong rebound in the following quarter. However, seasonal trends indicate the path higher may not be straightforward, as Q3 has historically been Ethereum's weakest quarter, delivering an average return of just 7.44%. The analyst noted that "ETH has more downside incoming as long as its pair bleeds," but emphasized that "timing the bottom is improbable, but we're in the second half of the bear market year."
