Former Bank of America Head of Technical Strategy Stephen Suttmeier believes Ethereum could be forming a 'tactical bottom' at current levels, with the token maintaining support above key technical levels. According to his latest analysis, if ETH stays above $1,690-$1,700, it would support his thesis of the altcoin forming a tactical low above its June lows. Another confirmation for this bottoming pattern would be a reclaim of $1,800, which would serve as the crucial breakthrough level. Suttmeier's projection is based on technical analysis using moving averages, with the current Ethereum price having briefly stalled below the 50-day moving average. Should the 50-day MA be decisively reclaimed as support with ETH price above $1,800, the next upside target would be the 200-day MA at $2.2K, implying a 25% upside potential if the $2.1K obstacle is cleared. Notably, Fundstrat's Tom Lee has also shared Suttmeier's analysis, adding credibility to the bullish outlook.
Ethereum has held near $1,756 on Wednesday after renewed Middle East tensions triggered a risk-off mood across financial markets, with sellers once again defending the $1,800 resistance zone. According to crypto.news data, the latest rejection followed U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets after Iran reportedly fired on civilian shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, sending investors toward traditional safe-haven assets and limiting demand for cryptocurrencies. The conflict also disrupted diplomatic efforts that had already paused during Iran's official mourning period for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Ethereum's recovery stalled just below a major technical resistance zone between $1,800 and $1,806, where the daily Supertrend indicator and the 50-day exponential moving average converged. The token maintains a bearish bias as it remains below a stack of key EMAs, with the 50-day EMA near $1,806, 100-day EMA around $1,972, and 200-day EMA near $2,241 reinforcing the broader overhead supply zone. However, the token has formed a double bottom reversal pattern after slipping below $1,600 twice in recent weeks, suggesting potential bullish momentum if key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.
Ethereum's 4-hour chart continues to form a bearish rounding-top pattern after the recovery from late June stalled near $1,830. Price has already broken below the ascending trendline that supported the rally and slipped beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,724 after repeated rejection near the 78.6% level at roughly $1,772. Momentum indicators have also turned weaker, with the 4-hour RSI falling to around 44 after approaching overbought territory earlier this week, while the MACD remains below its signal line with expanding negative histogram bars. The daily chart offers little relief, with Ethereum remaining below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages near $1,789, $2,025, and $2,247 respectively. A decisive break below the $1,700-$1,720 support band would strengthen the bearish setup and expose Ethereum to additional losses toward $1,650, with the June low near $1,550 becoming the next major support. However, analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes that "ETH Rejected at $1800 for the fourth time this last week. This resistance has held every single attempt so far... Below, this $1750 region remains key," identifying $1,750 as the lower boundary of the current range.
Ethereum's recovery faces significant headwinds from concentrated overhead supply, with Binance reserves climbing to 3.893 million ETH according to CryptoQuant data. The exchange continues receiving fresh inflows, making ETH immediately available for sale. Recent liquidation data from CoinGlass identifies an important support zone between $1,700 and $1,720, where a large concentration of leveraged long positions remains. A decisive break below that range could force another wave of liquidations and accelerate a decline toward the $1,650 region. The $1,800 level overlaps one of Ethereum's largest cost basis clusters, meaning many holders are near breakeven and sell into strength as investors want to exit positions. Derivatives positioning also argues for continued volatility, with CoinGlass showing one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting between roughly $1,770 and $1,780, with even larger concentrations extending toward the $1,800-$1,850 region. Notable long liquidation pools have developed around $1,720 and near the psychological $1,700 level, leaving both directions vulnerable to sharp moves. Additionally, CryptoQuant reports a 6% surge in exchange selling pressure in recent days as ETH attempted a rebound, with over 220K Ethereum hitting exchanges, slowing the relief rally near $1,800. The whale selling pressure has been steadily rising since March, with notable whales reducing exposure during the relief rally, and the whale sell-off has not tapered off as of writing.
Regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. has discouraged fresh institutional positioning, with the Securities and Exchange Commission updating its 2026 rulemaking agenda on July 7 and July 8 with three cryptocurrency proposals covering safe harbors, broker-dealer capital requirements, and alternative trading systems. While the framework offers more regulatory clarity than enforcement-led oversight, major investors continue to await the fate of the CLARITY Act before deploying additional capital into digital assets. Despite the price weakness, exchange-traded fund demand had remained constructive, with U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posting four consecutive days of net inflows until Thursday, when the trend broke with a $52M net outflow after seeing net inflows for five straight days. According to SoSoValue data, on July 6, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $29.082 million, led by BlackRock's ETHA with $29.742 million in single-day net inflows. However, analyst Rain notes that "$ETH is up 10% this week and open interest barely moved: the actual signal," suggesting the recent rally has been driven mainly by spot demand rather than leverage. The risk-off move was triggered by renewed Iran-U.S. escalations and bond market jitters, with macro and geopolitical pressures remaining at large and potentially affecting the bullish outlook, especially if U.S.-Iran escalations deepen.
Analyst Ted Pillows believes "ETH is still holding above the $1,750 level. As long as Ethereum stays above it, there's a decent chance of a relief rally." His chart identifies the next upside objective near $2,000 if buyers reclaim momentum, with the $1,800 level serving as the crucial breakthrough point for the bullish thesis. However, a close below $1,750 would weaken that outlook and could expose the $1,720 liquidity pocket before opening the door toward $1,700 and the nearby 200-day moving average around $1,694. The bearish outlook would lose momentum if ETH quickly reclaims the $1,800-$1,850 resistance area, which would invalidate the rounding-top pattern and shift attention back to the recent high near $1,833. Former BofA strategist Stephen Suttmeier's analysis suggests ETH could hit $2,100 and offer a 25% potential gain if the $1,800 level is decisively reclaimed. The bullish outlook would be supported by a double bottom reversal pattern formation and the potential for a 25% upside move if ETH decisively stays above $1,800. However, additional geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices, delays to U.S. crypto legislation, or another wave of risk-off selling across global markets could strengthen bearish pressure and postpone Ethereum's attempt to reclaim the $1,800-$1,850 resistance zone. Beyond price action, Ethereum continues to face structural headwinds inside its own ecosystem, with activity increasingly migrating toward layer-2 networks and competing layer-1 blockchains, reducing mainnet activity and weakening ETH's burn rate.
