XRP's network activity has experienced a dramatic collapse, with total transaction fees falling from 5.9k XRP in February 2025 to just 0.5k XRP at press time, representing a decline of more than 91%. This sharp contraction unfolded as trading activity slowed and fewer participants interacted with the network, marking a clear shift from the speculative surge that defined early 2025. During the rally, rising prices encouraged transactions, transfers, and broader speculation, but as momentum faded, that activity gradually disappeared, leaving fee generation to contract alongside demand. The decline now suggests the network is processing far less activity than it did during its peak expansion phase, reinforcing the view that the Ripple Ledger (XRPL) is still navigating a post-speculation reset rather than a fresh growth cycle.
XRP holders are capitulating according to Glassnode data, with the 90-day moving average of XRP's realized profit-to-loss ratio plunging to 0.38. This means for every $1 of losses investors are realizing, they are taking in just 38 cents in profit, with most coins trading on the blockchain now underwater. The ratio marks a sharp reversal from the 2025 peak when the ratio hit 50, when profit-takers outnumbered loss-sellers by a staggering 50-to-1. A ratio this far below 1 is widely viewed as a hallmark of capitulation, reflecting intense fear or forced selling in the market. While capitulation doesn't always mark the exact bottom, it frequently appears near exhaustion points in downtrends, suggesting the bear market may be in its final stages.
XRP has crashed to $1.11, representing a 40% decline for the year as the token lost the key $1.13 support level amid accelerated selling pressure. According to latest reports, the token fell from $1.1505 to $1.1248 during the 24-hour session, with selling volume surging to 109.9 million XRP - more than double the daily average. The breakdown occurred on some of the strongest activity seen in months, suggesting active liquidation and repositioning rather than passive weakness. The payments-focused cryptocurrency is now far below its July peak above $3.60, with prices peaking above $3.60 last July before the current bearish trend took hold.
XRP's technical outlook shows the token trading below all major EMAs clustered from $1.33 to $1.63, with the SuperTrend line at $1.26 sitting above spot price, reinforcing a capped tone despite the RSI hovering just above oversold territory near 30 on the daily chart. The negative MACD histogram keeps focus on persistent selling pressure, while the token holds firmly below the 50-day EMA at $1.33, 100-day EMA near $1.41, and 200-day EMA at $1.63. The most important development was the loss of $1.13 support, which now becomes the first resistance level on any recovery attempt. On the topside, initial resistance lies at the SuperTrend barrier around $1.26, with the 50-day EMA providing an additional hurdle ahead of the 100-day EMA near $1.41 and the more strategic 200-day EMA at $1.63.
$1.10-$1.12 is now the key support zone that traders are closely monitoring, with a decisive break lower increasing the risk of a move toward $1.00 and potentially the $0.80-$0.90 region. As reported by market analysts, XRP remains trapped inside a descending channel and below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, underscoring the broader bearish trend despite periodic relief rallies. The setup is becoming increasingly compressed, with traders watching whether buyers can defend the current support area with conviction. $1.13 is the first level bulls need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure, beyond which attention shifts to $1.20 and then the larger $1.35-$1.40 resistance zone where previous recovery attempts failed. Momentum indicators are nearing oversold territory, with daily RSI readings falling close to levels that historically preceded at least short-term relief rallies.
Despite mild capital inflows, sentiment around XRP remains grim, with the price dropping to $1.05 on Saturday before recovering to trade around $1.11. XRP spot ETFs have extended their mild bullish streak with $2.62 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows and bringing cumulative inflows to $1.43 billion with net assets reaching $928 million. This contrasts sharply with broader crypto ETF outflows, as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.72 billion in outflows through Friday, while Ethereum spot ETFs extended bearish streaks with $168 million in outflows for the fourth consecutive week. The persistent institutional appetite for XRP ETFs suggests underlying confidence despite short-term price weakness, with ChatGPT AI predicting potential recovery to the $3 to $5 range with a stretch target near $7 this cycle.
