Bitcoin has rebounded toward $62,000 on June 25 after tumbling as much as 5.7% to an intraday low near $59,175, according to crypto.news. The recovery followed an aggressive round of dip buying after the four-hour Relative Strength Index fell to its lowest level since August 2023, a condition that historically attracts swing traders looking for oversold entries. The bounce also came after a wave of long liquidations flushed leveraged positions below the psychological $60,000 level. However, the technical picture remains fragile as Bitcoin continues to trade below a descending trendline that has capped every recovery attempt since mid-June.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $459 million in net outflows on Wednesday, one of the largest daily withdrawals in recent weeks, as reported by crypto.news. The retreat came as markets continued to price in higher U.S. interest rates following persistent inflation data, while the U.S. dollar remained firm against major currencies. Selling pressure intensified after renewed concerns over a potential supply shock, with creditors of the collapsed Mt. Gox exchange expected to begin receiving roughly $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in July, raising fears that a large portion could be sold into the market. The German government continues to transfer seized Bitcoin to centralized exchanges, adding another source of near-term supply.
Deutsche Bank's economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice in 2026, reversing earlier expectations that monetary policy would ease. According to Deutsche Bank, this shift removes a key support that had underpinned institutional demand for bitcoin and other risk assets. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, but its new projections point to at least one hike in 2026, lifting the US 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.5%. Bitcoin and the 10-year yield carry a 30-day return correlation of about -0.315, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions, while BTC and the Nasdaq hold a positive 30-day correlation near 0.451, explaining why Bitcoin follows tech lower during risk-off periods.
Despite the recovery, Bitcoin remains under significant technical pressure with key resistance levels intact. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $62,770, while the next major resistance sits around $65,000, followed by the 50% retracement near $66,825. Momentum indicators have yet to confirm a trend reversal, with the four-hour RSI recovering from deeply oversold territory but remaining below the neutral 50 level, while the MACD continues to trade below its signal line with negative histogram bars. The daily chart presents a similar picture, with Bitcoin continuing to trade below the daily Supertrend indicator near $67,866.
Derivatives positioning supports a cautious outlook as CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show dense short liquidation clusters between $62,000 and $62,800, with another larger concentration around $63,000-$64,000. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that "the rally has been driven mostly by short positions being closed," while analyst Lennaert Snyder confirmed that funding rates have turned negative across most exchanges, confirming that short sellers currently dominate positioning. The current rebound remains vulnerable unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $62,800-$65,000 resistance zone with rising spot demand and stronger ETF inflows. A decisive break below current levels could trigger another round of leveraged liquidations.
