Bitcoin traded at approximately $63,082 on August 1, testing the $63,150 Fibonacci support level after retreating from July's $66,900 high. According to crypto.news, the cryptocurrency has now erased most of its recovery from the July 21 high near $66,900, with the daily chart placing Bitcoin directly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $265 million on July 31, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust leading withdrawals at $123 million and Fidelity's FBTC following with $54.8 million. The daily outflow ended a two-session inflow streak, showing that institutional demand remained fragile at the start of August. Total assets held by US spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at approximately $76.29 billion, equivalent to 6.04% of Bitcoin's market value.
The latest Bitcoin decline coincided with another escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and renewed concerns about energy supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran reportedly attacked two oil tankers under U.S. escort in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran also claimed it turned back four other vessels, with ship-tracking data showing that traffic through the strait remained thin. President Trump convened his Cabinet at Camp David as the administration considered its next steps, though no new military operation was formally announced during the meeting. The U.S. Senate failed in a 49-50 vote to advance a measure restricting Trump's authority to continue hostilities, leaving the administration's short-term military options largely unchanged. These developments lifted oil prices and renewed concerns that higher energy costs could keep U.S. inflation elevated, with a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields adding pressure on Bitcoin and other non-yielding risk assets.
Bitcoin's technical indicators continue to favor sellers across multiple timeframes. Bitcoin's daily relative strength index has fallen to 45.12, below its moving average of 51.99, with the reading not yet oversold, meaning the market could decline further before reaching conditions that typically attract dip buyers. The daily moving average convergence divergence indicator has produced a bearish setup, with the MACD line crossing below its signal line while the histogram moved into negative territory at −218.84. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $63,886 and close to the lower band at $62,489, with the upper band near $65,284 marking the first major volatility-based resistance. Chaikin Money Flow has dropped to −0.22, indicating that capital is leaving Bitcoin as it trades near support, reducing the strength of any short-term recovery attempt. A daily close below $63,150 would confirm that buyers failed to defend the retracement level, potentially leading to a retest of the $62,000 area.
Bitcoin's one-week liquidation heatmap reveals significant concentrations of leveraged positions that could shape the cryptocurrency's next move. The nearest downside liquidity cluster sits around $62,000, with a break below the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band at $62,489 potentially pushing Bitcoin toward this area as long positions are forced to close. A smaller concentration appears near $63,300, which could act as an immediate target during a rebound. Above that level, the strongest nearby short-liquidation zones extend from approximately $65,000 to $66,000. These concentrations can attract price as exchanges close leveraged positions, though they do not guarantee direction. A sustained break below $62,000 would weaken the outlook and expose $60,000, followed by the June low near $57,884, while a recovery above $65,284 would reduce immediate bearish pressure and shift attention back toward $67,284.
Markets are split on whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates or stay on hold Wednesday, with CME FedWatch data showing a 70% probability of unchanged rates and 30% chance of a surprise 25-basis-point hike. According to Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes, this uncertainty makes tomorrow's FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years, with only two Fed meetings since 2015 seeing markets more divided over the outcome. The spotlight will fall on the updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's commentary, with the Federal Reserve delivering its rate decision later Wednesday. Core PCE inflation and second-quarter GDP follow alongside another round of megacap technology earnings, adding to the market's focus on monetary policy. Additionally, traders are monitoring the CLARITY Act negotiations in Washington, with the White House expected to review a bipartisan ethics proposal as lawmakers seek enough support to move the market structure bill forward before the Senate's August recess. Polymarket traders placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at just 27% on August 1.
