According to WisdomTree research, bitcoin is trading at a 26% relative undervaluation to gold as of March 31, 2026. The Bitcoin in Gold (BiG) model shows the actual bitcoin/gold ratio at 15.6, while the model fair value stands at 21.1. As reported by WisdomTree, this gap reflects current macro inputs embedded in the model, with bitcoin reacting more aggressively than gold to macro shifts such as falling real yields and easier liquidity conditions. The analysis suggests this 26% undervaluation represents a bullish signal for bitcoin relative to gold, indicating potential for significant revaluation. This valuation gap occurs despite the broader market reaching record highs, suggesting bitcoin's relative strength against traditional assets continues to outperform.
The WisdomTree model assigns the highest probability for three macro scenarios over the next 12 months. According to the analysis, the current scenario involves no shock with gradual convergence to fair value, while an inflation shock would initially favor gold before bitcoin catches up later. A risk-off scenario with stronger USD would see gold outperform. These different outcomes depend on whether macro conditions favor monetary defensiveness or expansion, as gold represents monetary defensiveness while bitcoin represents monetary expansion. The current macro environment continues to favor bitcoin's relative outperformance against traditional assets, with the analysis suggesting that tracking the gap and anchoring decisions in macro context can provide systematic exposure to dislocations when they are wide.
As reported by CoinDesk Data, centralized exchanges are experiencing significant consolidation with the number of E-grade exchanges dropping from 11 in November 2025 to just four. The top-tier exchanges now command 59% of Q1 spot volume despite making up only 27% of rated venues, representing a sharp increase from 40% in October 2025. Binance remains the dominant force with 24% of total spot volume, nearly four times that of its nearest competitor, while Bitstamp leads the rankings for the first time in three years. CoinDesk Exchange Benchmark reports higher institutional standards with raised AA threshold, though the analysis notes systemic vulnerability to October 10 flash crashes across venues and fragmented regulation.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin has gained 5.7% month-to-date, outpacing major asset classes including the S&P 500, gold and oil since the start of May 2026. The CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up 15.32% MTD, significantly ahead of large caps, led by ZEC's 57% rally. This strength has filtered down the market-caps, with the divergence between CD80 and BTC suggesting momentum is rotating into smaller-cap altcoins as the broader crypto rally extends. The analysis highlights that $13B capital rotation is accelerating, with major institutional headlines from Circle, Ripple, Morgan Stanley, Bullish, and MicroStrategy creating significant market movements. Despite broader market record highs, bitcoin continues to demonstrate relative strength against traditional assets.
As reported by WisdomTree, the Bitcoin in Gold (BiG) model serves as a positioning tool for three practical applications: relative value trades, allocation tilts when holding both assets, and macro overlays combining with real yields, dollar trends and liquidity indicators. The analysis suggests that tracking the gap and anchoring decisions in macro context can provide systematic exposure to dislocations when they are wide, while avoiding overfitting short-term price moves. The current market environment, with 63% Proof of Reserves coverage and improving institutional standards, supports both institutional adoption trends and highlights short-term liquidity risks that investors should monitor closely. The model's fair value of 21.1 suggests significant upside potential for bitcoin relative to gold, particularly as macro conditions continue to favor monetary expansion over traditional monetary defensiveness.
