According to a comprehensive study by CoinGecko covering May 2013 to May 2026, Bitcoin demonstrates its strongest single-day returns on US federal holidays. The research analyzed 4,753 daily price observations and found that US holidays produced an average next-day return of +0.77%, roughly four times the +0.19% baseline for non-holidays. As reported by CoinGecko, this pattern holds across different price ranges, from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, despite the split 2026 price outlook between bulls and bears. CoinGecko researchers attribute the New Year's Day signal specifically to fresh January capital allocations and December tax-loss selling reversals, highlighting the psychological and behavioral factors driving these holiday-related gains.
The study identified New Year's Day as the clear leader with an average next-day return of +2.01% and an 84.6% win rate. Columbus Day also achieved an 84.6% win rate with a +1.70% average next-day gain. Christmas Day produced a smaller +1.46% gain on a 53.8% win rate, while Labor Day registered +1.22% across a 69.2% win rate. According to CoinGecko, two holidays buck the trend - Martin Luther King Jr. Day averages -0.84%, dragged down by a -18.65% Bitcoin drop on January 15, 2018, and Independence Day averages -0.26%, with both holidays posting win rates below 50%.
Within the trading week, Monday and Wednesday tied at +0.38% average next-day returns, while Thursday is the only day to post a negative average at -0.09%. The weekday-weekend gap was just 0.01%, far narrower than the documented Uptober seasonality effect. On a 365-day horizon, every weekday produced returns between 142.15% and 144.56%, with CoinGecko calling the spread negligible relative to Bitcoin's volatility. The data suggests holiday timing may add marginal value at short horizons, though whether the Santa rally pattern extends into next year's January setup remains an open question.
