Bitcoin is currently trading near $83,100 with stable 24-hour movements after retreating from $84,400, showing signs of stabilization after Monday's sharp decline. The cryptocurrency spent the first hours of the European session sliding through every level that held last week, trading at $83,500, down 4.3% over 24 hours. Market capitalization sits at $1.67 trillion on a circulating supply of 20.09 million coins against the 21 million hard cap, with 24-hour spot volume of $28.6 billion. The move matters because Bitcoin spent Thursday, Friday and the entire weekend inside a tight $83,000 to $85,000 band after failing above $87,000 on September 21. Monday's break took price below the lower edge of that range for the first time since the rally began, and it did so on a day when nothing inside crypto changed. The immediate test is $82,500 support against resistance around $84,400–$84,800, with BTC currently below its 200-day simple moving average near $84,382.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs just completed seven consecutive sessions of net inflows, a run that began September 17 and totaled close to $3 billion, with the week ending September 25 alone bringing $2.39 billion, the strongest weekly total of 2026 and the largest since October 2025. However, daily inflows have been decelerating dramatically: $999 million on Monday, $714.7 million on Tuesday, $347 million on Wednesday, $190.6 million on Thursday and $134.5 million on Friday. The most concerning development is that daily ETF demand dropped from nearly $1 billion to a low of $31 million on Monday, representing a 96% decline in institutional appetite. CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun stated, "Bitcoin ETF demand is cooling fast" amid increasing potential sell-side pressure. Total net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $108.42 billion, equal to 6.43% of Bitcoin's market capitalization, up from 6.32% in early September when combined assets were $103.34 billion. Friday's $134.5 million broke down into $97.0 million for BlackRock's IBIT and $49.3 million for Fidelity's FBTC, offset by an $11.8 million outflow from Bitwise's BITB.
CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin remains in a bull market with the firm's Bull Score Index at 90 out of 100, as BTC closed above its 365-day moving average. However, short-term traders' onchain unrealized profit margin has reached 33%, its highest level in 21 months, while holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on September 22, the largest single-day total of 2026. The seven-day RSI at 35.87 signals weak momentum rather than a confirmed reversal, with trading volume of $27 billion alongside price providing weaker evidence of renewed demand. Surprisingly, Option traders have been aggressively betting on a potential upside rally to $90K and $95K, illustrated by the highest Open Interest dominated by calls targeting strike prices of $90K, $95K, and $100K. Adding to supply pressure, CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun noted that short-term holders (STH) have sent 45K BTC to exchanges in 24 hours, which could further derail the asset's extended recovery. The most important data point this month is the gap between flows and price, with seven straight sessions of spot ETF inflows worth close to $3 billion failing to hold price above $85,000.
The trigger for Monday's decline came from bonds and oil, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading at 5.293%, its highest level since June 2007, briefly reaching 5.293% before settling. The 5-year yield jumped 7 basis points overnight to 5.06%, the 2-year sits at 4.91%, and the 30-year bond has pushed to 5.51%. Fed funds futures assign a 70.3% probability to a rate hike at the October meeting, with the debate among traders no longer whether the Fed eases in the fourth quarter but whether the Fed tightens again before year-end. However, Tuesday's weak labor report has cleared the Fed rate hike fears ahead of the late October FOMC meeting, with the odds of another 0.25% rate hike slipping to 42% while the chances for a rate pause surged to 57%. The Non-Farm Payroll report, expected on Friday, October 2nd, will confirm whether the U.S labor market is indeed weakening. If Friday's payroll data hints at a strong labor market, then the rate hike fears may return, potentially pressuring Bitcoin lower.
Binance CEO Richard Teng was still positive about the market despite the challenging macro backdrop, noting that investor demand is showing signs of improvement. Despite macro pressure being a key driver behind the ETF fluctuation and subsequent BTC price pullback from $87K to below $84K, some traders may already be betting on an upside move towards $90K and above. Whether Friday's labor report will renew the recovery remains to be seen, with the data potentially deciding whether BTC pushes forward or drags lower. Against the all-time high of $126,198.07 set on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin trades 34% lower. Higher yields make cash and bonds more competitive with non-yielding assets, while tighter rate expectations can pressure risk appetite, making Friday's jobs report critical for Bitcoin's near-term direction.
