Bitcoin has recovered to trade around $66,598.08 on Friday, recovering from the day's low of $65,725.26 after recent declines. However, the recovery faces significant headwinds as crypto liquidations reached over $400 million on Thursday, April 2, with figures climbing from $271.18 million on Wednesday to $456.19 million on Thursday. According to AMBCrypto, of these liquidations, $287 million were long positions and $169 million were short positions, with Bitcoin's price drop below $66K on Thursday likely contributing to the short-term selling pressure. Bitcoin recorded the highest amount of liquidations in the last 24 hours, measuring $57.17 million, as reported by CoinGlass. Bitcoin's funding rate also fell into negative territory on Thursday, but had climbed to +0.0008% at press time, indicating shifting market sentiment. The swing moves on the 3-day timeframe were captured in white, with the latest bounce amid the downtrend coming in February and being incomplete, as noted by AMBCrypto. The $60k swing low resulted in a bounce that has not climbed above the 50% retracement level, with many analysts considering the area above the 50% retracement as "premium" territory.
The global crypto market capitalisation edged down 2% to $2.29 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap, reflecting the broader market decline. Among major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid and Cardano were in red and went down up to 6%, as reported by The Economic Times. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum were down 6% and 4% respectively in the past week, highlighting the volatility that has characterized recent trading sessions. Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst at Mudrex, noted that while recent remarks from President Trump about a potential end to the conflict have eased immediate selling pressure, overall sentiment remains cautious. The fear & greed index points at 30, indicating continued market uncertainty despite the recent recovery.
Bitcoin's current technical setup shows clear signs that rising market FUD is not translating into FOMO, with near-term support now sitting around $65k, a zone that could act as a key reaction area for price. Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst at Delta Exchange, noted that crypto markets remain under pressure as macro uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to drive a risk-off tone across global assets. Bitcoin is consolidating near the $66,000-$67,000 range after repeated rejection around $70,000, indicating supply overhead and a pattern of lower highs on lower timeframes. Akashnath S from AMBCrypto explains that the H4 timeframe's swing structure was bullish, but the price was resting near the $65.9k swing lows, with a session close below $65,618 needed to flip the H4 expectations bearishly. A 3-day session closing below $60k is needed to show that the long-term downtrend will continue, and until this happens, expecting a Bitcoin price bounce into the premium value area above $78.9k remains valid. WazirX Markets Desk indicated that BTC oscillators remain neutral, while moving averages indicate short-term selling activity, with price action reflecting a pause in momentum.
Rising geopolitical risks and market uncertainty are weakening investor conviction, keeping Bitcoin on fragile footing as Q2 begins. According to AMBCrypto, Polymarket data shows just a 14% chance of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizing by month-end, while crude oil continues to trade near $112 per barrel. Santiment reports show discussions around the Iran-U.S. conflict currently rank first in social volume, highlighting rising macro-driven sentiment. The 86% probability of the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict continuing beyond April keeps geopolitical risk front and center, with markets increasingly pricing in risk. The West Asia crisis resulted in surging oil prices and fears of growing inflation, with institutional traders hedging against further downside evident in increased demand for puts (bearish bets). Historically, Bitcoin has often rebounded strongly in Q2 after a weak Q1, but the current setup shows clear signs that rising market FUD is not translating into FOMO, with Bitcoin beginning the quarter by slipping below the $70k level.
Despite price volatility, on-chain data shows a 48.5% increase in demand from long-term holders, as reported by The Economic Times. However, the price action has yet to fully reflect this accumulation, according to market analysts. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, noted that March was not a month of capitulation but a clash between institutional buying and stubborn global macro environment, with the sharpest selling coming in the final week. March 26 marked the first time in 2026 that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs all recorded net outflows on the same day. The following day, the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026 settled $14.16 billion on Deribit, triggering $451 million in forced liquidations and erasing $6.86 billion in total ETF net assets. The overall market sentiment remains under fear, with investors continuing to assess the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty.
