Bitcoin price rebounded back above $82,509 at press time after falling over 2.3% from a 4-month high of $82,751 on Wednesday to an intraday low of $80,771. According to reports from CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency's recovery was driven by improved investor risk-on sentiment following Iran's signal that it was reviewing a U.S.-backed peace proposal. The bellwether cryptocurrency reclaimed the $81K figure as oil prices continued to drop for the third straight day, supporting renewed confidence in riskier assets. Latest data from TradingView shows Bitcoin has made an impressive return in recent days, stabilizing above the $80,000 resistance level which has now flipped into strong support. The crypto market recorded more than $320 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin climbed above the $81,000 level for the first time in months, leading to significant market movements.
Iran is currently reviewing a U.S.-backed peace proposal presented through Pakistani intermediaries, with reports indicating the country is expected to provide a formal response within the coming days. As reported by CoinDesk, the one-page memorandum of understanding includes a comprehensive framework for a ceasefire and the restoration of trade routes, though it excludes sensitive discussions surrounding Iran's nuclear program. U.S. President Donald Trump clarified that a deal has not yet been finalized, adding that the U.S. would continue with its attacks on Iran if it fails to comply with the proposed terms. The White House is aiming to move the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act through Congress before July 4, according to White House digital assets adviser Patrick Witt, who said the legislation aims to establish a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework. However, recent developments show that peace talks are now stalled, with President Trump having recently canceled a planned second trip for his peace envoy to Pakistan, signaling a rejection of a new Iranian proposal.
A critical security breach at the White House Correspondents' Dinner has fundamentally altered market expectations regarding Iran war dynamics. According to law enforcement sources, the shooter explicitly stated he wanted to target Trump administration officials, with his manifesto mocking what he described as an "insane" lack of security at the event. This domestic attack, driven by anti-Trump sentiment rather than geopolitical retaliation, has definitively contradicted the market's priced-in expectation of an Iran-linked proxy attack. President Trump has explicitly stated the incident "is not going to deter me from winning the war in Iran," effectively resetting the forward view and treating the Iran war as a separate, ongoing policy driver. The market's focus must now shift from assessing Iranian retaliatory strikes to evaluating the implications of domestic security vulnerabilities and potential costly institutional reforms.
Claude AI has identified multiple factors behind Bitcoin's latest resurgence, including the de-escalation of the US-Iran war following US President Donald Trump's announcement that the US had responded to Iran's 14-point peace proposal and would start escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The AI solution notes that ETF inflows turning positive in late April have contributed significantly to Bitcoin's latest rally, alongside technical reclamation of key price levels. Claude AI also highlighted the Bitcoin post-halving squeeze coming into play for the first time since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, with the reduction in BTC supply affecting the price. Other catalysts identified include regulatory progress on the US Clarity Act, which seeks to create a framework for regulating digital assets, and expectations of macro monetary easing with lower interest rates playing a significant role in boosting Bitcoin's price. The Trump administration is preparing to go public with new details on the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the coming weeks, adding to the positive sentiment.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending parallel channel pattern since late March, forming higher highs and higher lows consistently over the past several weeks. As reported by CoinDesk, the Supertrend has continued to remain green, indicating that the overall bullish momentum is still firmly in control. The MACD lines have formed a positive crossover, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing in the short term. According to Claude AI's technical analysis, there is a moderate-to-high chance for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 during the current run, with a probability rating of 65% to 70%. The AI solution suggests BTC could head toward the $92,000-$98,000 price range if it closes cleanly above $82,000. There is a moderate chance for Bitcoin to surge to $100,000 soon, with a probability rating of 45% to 55%, while the chance of rallying to $120,000 is limited at 25% to 35%. Bitcoin funding rates have turned negative again while the price trades near the $81,000 resistance zone, indicating that traders are positioning for potential further upside.
