West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $80 per barrel on Tuesday, marking its first drop below that level in nearly 4 months as hopes for a US-Iran framework deal eased concerns about global oil supply. WTI traded around $78 on Tuesday, down more than 4% on the day, after spiking above $100 earlier in 2026 during the height of the Iran conflict. Bitcoin held near $66,650, benefiting from the slide in energy prices that is reshaping risk appetite across markets. The benchmark had spiked above $100 earlier in 2026 during the Iran conflict, when Bitcoin fell under $100,000 as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are now pricing in a possible Strait of Hormuz reopening, the chokepoint that handles about 20% of global petroleum consumption, according to the EIA. A framework agreement could let Iranian exports resume and ease the supply crunch.
Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick confirmed that three bullish signals for bitcoin have now appeared, matching the conditions he outlined after a recent Bitcoin price analysis tied to the conflict. The update centered on fresh Strategy buying, positive BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and lower oil prices. As per Standard Chartered, "There has been a lot of chat about BTC making lower highs. So breaking above the USD83K region from early May will be the next critical confirmation needed." The bank had previously flagged renewed corporate buying as a key condition, with Strategy's new BTC purchase of 1,587 BTC for approximately $100 million last week helping satisfy this critical requirement. Spot bitcoin ETF flows added a second bullish indicator, with Friday producing a positive inflow day for BTC, with $85.85 million entering the products - their strongest day in a month, even as the funds still closed the week with net redemptions. Oil kept breaking lower provided the third confirmatory signal. Kendrick has set a year-end target of $100,000, with the rotation holding dependent on the US-Iran peace deal reaching a clean signing.
Bitcoin closed 3.54% higher on the week at $65,655, finding relief in the Iran-US peace deal that was announced on Friday. The agreement, which will be signed on June 19 in Switzerland, has Trump declaring the Strait of Hormuz open and ordering the US naval blockade lifted, telling vessels from all nations to sail. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil, making its reopening the single largest near-term influence on energy prices that drove headline inflation above 4% in May. According to Iranian state media, the draft commits Iran to reopening Hormuz within 30 days in exchange for the suspension of US oil and petrochemical sanctions and the release of around half of the $25 billion in frozen assets, with full sanctions relief to be negotiated over a 60-day window. Lower energy costs also reduce inflation pressure, giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut, a backdrop that fuels Fed rate cut bets and tends to favor risk assets like crypto.
Major institutional buyers have returned to the Bitcoin market, with significant accumulation activity resuming after a period of selling pressure. According to reports from AMBCrypto, the world's largest Bitcoin treasury has added 1,587 BTC for approximately $100 million in the last week, with an average buying price of $63,024 per BTC. This transaction brings Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings to 846,842 BTC, representing a total investment of around $64.07 billion at an average purchase price of $75,656 per BTC. The company has also raised its USD reserves by another $100 million, taking them to $1.1 billion. This institutional demand has helped stabilize the market amid broader selling pressure from retail investors.
Recent market data shows a significant shift in large holder behavior, with whale selling pressure diminishing after initial concerns. As reported by CryptoQuant, between 1 and 4 June, older Bitcoin moved to exchanges and selling pressure pushed Bitcoin down to $63.8K. However, the market tone flipped near the $61.4K-level, with panic selling on the rise and large wallets beginning to absorb supply. The Exchange Whale Ratio rose to 62.3% near the $61,400 area, a level described as aggressive whale buying during panic selling. By June 14, whale supply, which had been falling for nearly two weeks, started rising again, with big hands treating the $60K-$61.5K level as a critical buy zone. More than 11,400 BTC worth roughly $700 million moved from exchanges to cold wallets during the June 5-10 absorption phase, with negative netflow readings showing withdrawals exceeded deposits across several sessions.
The June 11 to June 14 period brought fading sell pressure, continued withdrawals, and a turn higher in wallets holding at least 100 BTC. As reported by CryptoQuant, the data characterized this period as a 'massive supply shock' as selling activity faded and whale supply turned higher. "As selling dried up, a massive 'supply shock' occurred. On June 14, total Whale Supply (100+ BTC Wallets) officially turned back up, triggering a strong price rebound to $65,704.89," according to the analysis. The whale-supply reversal marked a shift away from the exchange-inflow pressure seen earlier in the correction. The analyst concluded: "The wealth transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete. Whales have locked in the $60,000–$61,500 range as a rock-solid floor. With exchange reserves depleted, the path of least resistance for bitcoin is now firmly upward."
Despite recent recovery, Bitcoin remains trapped in a consolidation zone between critical support and resistance levels. The aggregate Realised Price near $54,000 serves as the definitive cycle floor for deeper pullbacks, while resistance is found at prices near $68,000 and higher. Recent buyers face significant challenges, with Short-Term Holder profitability metrics showing losses of roughly 17-19%, creating substantial overhead supply. The STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) sustaining under the par value at 1 shows how aggressively recent buyers have turned to sellers once price moved under $75,000. However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $85.85 million on June 12 after five consecutive sessions of net outflows, suggesting that selling pressure from institutional investors is starting to ease. The $83,000 region from early May now represents the next critical confirmation level for bitcoin's bullish outlook, as identified by Standard Chartered and supported by the emerging bullish signals. A move above the early May peak around $83,000 would mark the next test for the rotation thesis, with the $100,000 year-end target dependent on continued market confirmation and the successful implementation of the US-Iran peace deal.
