Bitcoin has slipped back below $80,000 after trading near $78,257, marking a significant retreat from recent highs despite earlier recovery efforts. The cryptocurrency recorded its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, leading some investors to believe the bear market may have ended, but current trading levels show the rebound remains fragile. This struggle comes despite Bitcoin holders whose coins have remained dormant for more than five years doubling their spending activity since May, pushing the cohort's 90-day average to approximately 1,500 BTC. According to reports from CryptoQuant, the 90-day moving average of spent outputs from this group has reached about 1,500 BTC, representing a significant increase from the May level. However, as AMBCrypto reports, this increased spending activity suggests OG Bitcoin holders are selling their bags and their conviction has weakened, especially as BTC reaches new local highs.
Despite Bitcoin's recent strength, Fidelity Investments warns that the cryptocurrency's strong August rally and other factors offer reasons for optimism, but none confirm that the bear market has ended. The financial giant points to Bitcoin's historical four-year market cycle, noting that the crypto asset has generally formed major bear-market bottoms and bull-market tops about four years apart. Since the previous bear market bottom came in November 2022, this pattern could point to another potential low around November 2026 if the cycle continues. While Fidelity stressed that the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to repeat and that Bitcoin's bottom may already have occurred in July, it still speculated that the cryptocurrency could fall again and set another low in November or later. The firm identified several catalysts that could influence whether the crypto bear market ends, including more crypto-friendly regulation, changes in government monetary policy, the emergence of an unexpectedly popular crypto use case, and increasing institutional adoption.
On-chain data reveals easing selling pressure as holders have largely stopped selling at a loss, with Net Realized Profit and Loss back in positive territory and Long-Term Holder SOPR at 1.2. According to XWIN Japan, accumulation addresses control roughly 2.3 million BTC, while depositors have shown little urgency to move coins onto exchanges as Bitcoin approached $80,000. However, futures traders have led the rebound while spot flows stay neutral, with the 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for spot markets remaining neutral. Wintermute reports that Bitcoin still closed the week 3.45% higher, even as hawkish macro pressure usually drags crypto down alongside equities. Despite this recovery, spot demand has yet to provide the same confirmation as futures buyers have taken the lead during the rebound.
Institutional demand provides stronger support for Bitcoin's recovery, with US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $986.9 million in the week ended September 4, extending the ETF market's inflow streak to three weeks and bringing total inflows to roughly $3.8 billion. However, ETF demand does not necessarily translate into immediate buying across open spot markets, with negative Coinbase Premium and elevated whale deposit ratios remaining warning signs. Binance stablecoin reserves have shown mixed signals, peaking above $50 billion this cycle before falling by nearly $7 billion, though the past month brought $1.6 billion back into reserves. The 90-day change in Binance's stablecoin market cap has improved to -1.6% from -17%, though analysts view this recovery as genuine but too slow to support the move on its own.
Key catalysts approaching include US CPI data due September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting, which will test whether sellers continue to stay away from Bitcoin. As XWIN Japan notes, a clean break above the $80,000 level should be the key to fully opening the door for liquidity to return for good. Market analysts present three distinct scenarios for Bitcoin's trajectory through 2026, with the base case projecting Bitcoin trading between $110,000 and $130,000 by late 2026, while the bullish scenario envisions $150,000 to $200,000 if several positive catalysts align simultaneously. The next tests will determine whether the current rebound can sustain above $80,000 or if selling pressure returns to challenge the recovery.
