A Bitcoin whale sold 625 BTC worth $39.96 million through FalconX, marking a significant exit from the market after over a year of dormancy. According to Lookonchain data, the whale originally purchased these tokens when Bitcoin was trading around $96,000, spending $59.98 million at the time. Since then, Bitcoin has decreased by approximately 33%, resulting in the whale realizing a loss of over $20 million on their investment. This whale's decision to sell during extended market weakness reflects growing skepticism among large holders, with the exit occurring at a time when Bitcoin has been trading near $64,300 after rebounding from a brief dip to $62,000 three days ago.
Despite the whale's exit, Bitcoin long-term holders have significantly reduced spending with the RHODL Ratio dropping to levels last seen in October 2023. As reported by AMBCrypto, the Sell Side Risk Ratio remains extremely low at 0.000357, indicating that market pressure from long-term holders is very limited and those exiting are a minority. With over $217 billion in unrealized losses, LTHs are not incentivized to sell, showing clear market conviction among experienced holders. This contrasts sharply with short-term holders, who continue to actively cash out their profits as market sentiment remains in fear territory, with the Community Sentiment reading at 'neutral' and the Fear and Greed Index at 36.
Bitcoin's annual supply inflation has dropped to 0.88% following the latest halving event, according to reports from AMBCrypto. This represents a significant decline from previous levels and marks a milestone in Bitcoin's monetary policy. The inflation rate measures how quickly Bitcoin's circulating supply is expanding, with the current figure reflecting the predictable path toward Bitcoin's 21 million coin supply cap. The combination of declining miner reserves and reduced long-term holder selling creates a near four-year low in available Bitcoin supply, providing strong support against ongoing demand. Despite short-term profit-taking, net unrealized losses remain relatively low with NUPL at 0.17, leaving Bitcoin only slightly profitable overall and potentially protecting against deeper declines.
Despite short-term holder profit-taking and whale exits, Bitcoin has attracted $5.25 billion in fresh capital this week alone, as reported by CoinGlass capital-flow data. This represents a significant increase from last week's netflow of -$46.7 million, with the current outflow exceeding last week's figure by more than five times. The negative netflow reflects heavier buying and more Bitcoin moving into private wallets, a signal of long-term holding outlook. However, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has surged past zero to 0.17, leaving Bitcoin only slightly profitable overall, which could push investors to offload holdings if market sentiment deteriorates further.
Bitcoin remains range-bound with the Directional Logistic Oscillator largely negative and held within this zone for months, reflecting prolonged bearish pressure. According to technical analysis, Bitcoin has held below the RSI Momentum Trend since failing to hold above $66,000, with this level remaining as dynamic resistance. At press time, Bitcoin needs to close above $66,000 to boost recovery prospects, though if sentiment remains low, BTC is likely to continue trading sideways. The current market structure shows that while whale exits and short-term profit-taking create selling pressure, the limited selling from long-term holders provides fundamental support, creating a complex dynamic where institutional and retail demand compete with profit-taking behavior.
