According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to change their behavior after accumulating at record levels, signaling a possible shift in the current cycle. LTH supply recently turned lower after climbing toward 16 million BTC, while short-term holder supply remained comparatively subdued. This trend is similar to previous cycles of LTH supply curves, which reflect how experienced investors sell part of their portfolios when prices rise. However, this cycle has developed differently, with the first major price run-up lasting about 31 months compared to 8, 17, and 16 months from previous cycles. The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen close to 1, offering another perspective on the market's current phase, with the narrowing profitability gap between long and short-term holders mirroring conditions seen around 2015, 2019, and 2022 market bottoms.
According to reports from AMBCrypto, Strategy Founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point, potentially marking its bottoming phase. During Strategy's Q2 earnings call on Thursday, Saylor claimed that BTC had dropped to its 200-week Moving Average (MA). He emphasized that the right price signal to watch is the 200-week MA, noting it provides a "pretty up and to the right message and signal." As reported by AMBCrypto, the 200-week MA previously marked Bitcoin's bottoming phase in 2022, though it remained below the level for an extended period before recovering above it. Now, Strategy has officially begun tracking Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, with the company holding 843,775 bitcoin worth approximately $53 billion. According to Saylor's recent announcement on X, Bitcoin has traded above the 200-week MA 92% of the time historically, and currently sits almost exactly on the line at $63,770. However, recent price action shows Bitcoin trading near $63,000, at a slight discount to the 200-week simple moving average, as reported by CoinDesk.
According to Glassnode's latest Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), roughly 515,000 BTC, more than 3% of the circulating supply, is concentrated around the $63,000 price level. The data reveals that more than 2%, or roughly 362,000 BTC, sits around $61,000, making these two price levels the most heavily supplied areas in the current market. Glassnode's 30-day Accumulation Trend Score shows that retail investors are currently the most aggressive buyers at these prices, with every other cohort also accumulating. Notably, whales holding at least 1,000 BTC are showing similarly strong accumulation, demonstrating broad-based institutional and retail interest in the current price range. Bitcoin is also trading almost exactly in line with its 200-week moving average, which currently stands at $63,657 compared with bitcoin's price of $63,822, highlighting significant accumulation in this range.
Recent macroeconomic data shows U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, above the expected 54, marking its highest level since June 2022. According to AMBCrypto, this stronger PMI typically points to improving manufacturing activity and a healthier economic backdrop, which could influence risk assets like Bitcoin. Notably, every time the ISM PMI has sustained levels above 55, the crypto market has entered a major upside phase, with the same signal behind Bitcoin's 2017 and 2021 bull runs resurfacing. During those cycles, the total crypto market cap broke above $500 billion and $2 trillion respectively, while Bitcoin rallied 1,336% and 59% in those periods. However, this signal alone does not guarantee Bitcoin will repeat the same move, especially with BTC still down more than 25% in 2026. The timing is particularly significant as rate hike odds have climbed above 64% for the next FOMC meeting, with key macro data releases this week potentially shaping expectations heading into September's Fed decision.
Despite Bitcoin's technical strength near the 200-week MA and improving on-chain indicators, market sentiment has yet to reflect those improving conditions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear at 27, showing investors continue approaching Bitcoin cautiously despite strengthening blockchain fundamentals. This caution stands in contrast to the supply held by LTH, which remains near a record 16 million BTC. Moreover, the MVRV was compressing toward 1.21 to 1.22 at press time, indicating compressed valuations. Historically, fear often lingers while on-chain fundamentals quietly improve, and this current divergence stands out rather than being contradictory. However, the convergence of restrained profitability, compressed valuations, strong long-term holder conviction, and persistent fear increasingly resembles the conditions that preceded previous Bitcoin accumulation phases, suggesting that the movement indicates long-term holders are now acting like participants once again, and thus the cycle is moving into its second distribution phase.
