Bitcoin long positions on Bitfinex reached 80,636 BTC on May 20, marking the highest level since December 2023. According to TradingView data, these margin long positions have increased by approximately 10% since the start of 2026, despite Bitcoin falling 13% year-to-date to near $76,000. The surge in long positions occurred as Bitcoin declined for five consecutive trading days between May 15 and May 19, sliding from above $80,000 to approximately $76,000. As per CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's recent rally hit resistance at the 200-day moving average near $82,400, a pattern that "directly mirrors" what happened in March 2022 when Bitcoin rallied 43% from its lows before hitting the same resistance level.
According to CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno, the failure to move above the 200-day moving average represents "the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact." Bitcoin rose around 37% from its April 2026 lows before facing similar resistance, with the cryptocurrency currently trading around $77,320, up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours. The so-called Bitfinex whale has historically acted as a contrarian indicator, with large leveraged long positions expanding during market weakness and being reduced near local market tops. As per CryptoQuant, Bitcoin demand has "flipped into contraction" with speculative demand in perpetual futures slowing sharply after Bitcoin moved above $82,000. Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin has filled its CME gap to the upside, with the $80,000 level acting as key technical support, while resistance is forming around $83,200 as seen in current CME futures data.
The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has dropped from 40 to 20, which the firm classifies as "extremely bearish" territory, matching readings recorded during the February-March 2026 episode when Bitcoin declined to $60,000-$66,000. U.S.-based spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have turned into net sellers, selling around 4,000 bitcoin on a net basis after buying as much as 64,000 bitcoin over a 30-day period earlier in May. However, recent developments show Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net positive inflows, suggesting that institutional buyers are treating geopolitical dips as accumulation opportunities. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium has remained negative during both the April-May rally and subsequent correction, showing that U.S. institutional and retail investors have not returned to the market in a meaningful way, historically a sign of sustained bull markets.
Analysts consistently point to the $78,000 to $81,000 zone as the key area for Bitcoin to reclaim before a sustained recovery becomes probable. CryptoQuant sees around $70,000 as the key support level, or the Traders' Onchain Realized Price, which has acted as support or resistance during previous stages of the bear market. At that level, traders would have zero or negative unrealized profit left, reducing the incentive to sell and historically helping demand return to stabilize prices. Recent technical analysis suggests Bitcoin has filled its CME gap in the $78K-$79K range, with the $80,000 level acting as crucial support. The ongoing standoff between buyers and sellers continues to play out as Bitcoin approaches these critical technical levels, with the current price action suggesting that while leveraged traders continue accumulating positions during the decline, the market remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.
