Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, reaching a significant milestone that historically coincides with bear market bottoms. According to reports from Bitcoin.org, the network currently sits at block 970,344, with the fifth halving triggering at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks away. At the average pace of one block every 10 minutes, this points to April 2028 for the next halving event, which will cut the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The current period is measured in blocks, with some analysts suggesting the 4-year rhythm may give way to a longer cycle, though historical timing has remained consistent.
Despite long-term holder buying dropping 96% to 1,051 BTC between September 20 and October 8, Bitcoin shows resilience with a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart. Between September 2 and October 8, Bitcoin made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slid from about 65 to 47, creating the divergence pattern. Selling volume analysis reveals that while red volume bars have grown since October 6, the October 8 bar was still about 18% smaller than the October 2 peak, indicating reduced selling pressure. This pattern mirrors the late July behavior when holder buying faded but Bitcoin still rose 24% that month, supported by spot ETF inflows of $3.04 billion during an August 17-27 streak.
Bitcoin currently trades near $82,300, representing a 28% gain over three months despite this week's decline. The cryptocurrency has trended higher since bouncing from $75,041 on September 15, finding a floor at $80,383 on October 8. The pullback has since rebounded, with the current price level sitting just under the $88,086 0.618 Fibonacci level where rebounds often stall. A daily close above $83,325 represents the first step for continued recovery, while reclaiming $88,086 could draw long-term holders back into the market. However, a drop under $80,383 would break the higher low and cancel the divergence pattern, potentially exposing the $75,041 level.
Analyst The Rational Root mapped the 62% mark across all four halving cycles, revealing consistent patterns with market bottoms. In the first cycle, this point arrived in early 2015, with BTC setting its bear market low that January. In the third cycle, the mark landed in late 2022, with the bottom near $15,500 following the FTX collapse in November 2022. Trader Jesse Olson analyzed price action across all four post-halving periods, finding that every top formed prior to 550 days and every bottom formed near or before 900 days. The current cycle fits this pattern, with BTC setting its record above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, around day 534, and today marking day 900.
